000 AGXX40 KNHC 121730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HURRICANE IKE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. MAX WINDS ARE NEAR 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. IKE HAS A VERY EXTENSIVE WIND FIELD AND ITS LARGE CIRCULATION HAS PRODUCED 12 FT SEAS OR GREATER OVER THE BULK OF THE GULF N OF 23N. SFC DATA THIS MORNING AND A REPORT FROM THE COAST GUARD SUGGEST MAX SEAS NEAR 45-50 FT...HIGHER THAN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST OF THE NAH WAVE MODEL. WW3 AND THE NAH VERSION ARE UNDERESTIMATING SEAS SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NW QUADRANT...ASSOCIATED WITH E SWELL. IKE IS FORECAST TO STRENGHTEN SLIGHTLY BEFORE MAKING LANDALL TONIGHT. ONCE INLAND...IKE WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER E TEXAS AND WINDS AND SEAS WILL ACCORDINGLY SUBSIDE QUICKLY. THE REMANTS OF IKE WILL DRAG AN EARLY SEASON FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST SUN EVENING. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT SURGE INTO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE MON AND TUE. KEPT 20-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT OVER W WATERS FOR THESE DAYS...IN LINE WITH MUCH OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC... WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. LATEST QSCAT PASS REVEALS SE 20 KT WINDS AND BUOY DATA SUGGESTS SEAS TO 8 FT. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IKE MAKES LANDFALL AND WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...ELY TRADES ARE MAINLY 10-15 KT...EXCEPT FOR THE USUAL ENHNACED ZONE NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST WHERE TRADES ARE NEAR 20 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE ALSO DIMINISHING OVER THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AS SFC TROUGHING PUSHES FARTHER AWAY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN AND BECOME VARIABLE N OF 15N LATE THIS WEEKEND AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE...10-15 KT E TO SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE S HALF. SW N ATLC... A SFC TROUGH...PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF JOSEPHINE...EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS ALONG 28N68W TO 20N73W. SFC OBS AND PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER DATA SUPPORT 15-20 KT WINDS WITHIN 180 NM W AND 300 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. GFS CLOSES A LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WHILE UKMET/ECMWF AND OTHERS KEEP THE FEATURE AN OPEN TROUGH. LEANED TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION IN PRODUCTS BASICALLY EXTRAPOLATING TROUGH WNW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY SUN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TURN N NEAR THE E COAST OF FLORIDA AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...MAY NEED TO MAKE CHANGES IF FEATURE SHOWS MORE PROMISE TO DEVELOP. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN WAKE OFF FRONT ALONG 27N SUN THRU TUE. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ080...GMZ082...GMZ084...BASED ON LAST ADVISORY...TS AND HURCN WARNING N OF 24N BETWEEN 88W AND 97W. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.