000 AGXX40 KNHC 120637 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HURCN IKE NW WATERS ATTM...EXPECT CENTER TO MOVE ONSHORE NE TEXAS FRI NIGHT. LATEST RUN OF NAH HAS LINED UP VERY CLOSE TO 00Z OBS FROM BUOY ARRAY...THUS WILL GO WITH NAH HEIGHTS UNTIL SEAS ARRIVE IN SHALLOW WATER NW GULF WATERS THEN USE BLEND OF MWW3 TO LOWER MAX HEIGHTS A TAD...ROUGHLY FROM 59 FT MAX TO 52 FT MAX. EXPECT ASSOCIATED SEAS TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 12 FT AROUND SUNRISE SUN...BUT GRADIENT CONTINUES NW ZONE ALL DAY SUN WITH SLY 20 KT/SEAS TO 8 FT...AS IKE DRAGS A COLD FRONT INTO NW WATERS AROUND SUNSET SUN. NLY WINDS NW OF FRONT WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT BY SUNRISE MON AND FURTHER INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KT ALONG NE MEXICAN COAST. POSSIBILITY OF GALE NEAR 23N97W SUNSET MON BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY OF TRACK OF IKE AFTER LANDFALL...AND RESULTANT STRENGTH AND TIMING OF FRONT...WILL GO WITH 30 KT MAX FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES CENTER BUILDS OVER NE GULF MON AND MEANDERS THROUGH TUE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC... SE TO S 20-25 KT WINDS STILL INDICATED IN SSMI DATA...BUT SHIPS ARE REPORTING SE 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 7 FT OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WATERS ATTM...ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURCN IKE. EXPECT THIS GRADIENT TO RELAX BY SUNSET TODAY TO 15 KT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 6 FT TONIGHT AND TO 4-5 FT BY SUNRISE SAT. ELY 20 KT NOTED ALONG NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUE...THEN PERHAPS GRADIENT MIGHT RELAX...OR THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING THIS WILL CHANGE IN LATER RUNS. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS WILL MOVE W AT 15 KT TO ALONG 80W SAT AND MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS SUN. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IN CENTRAL ATLC WILL MOVE W TO ALONG 55W SAT...ENTER E CARIBBEAN ALONG 62W SUN...REACH ALONG 69W MON AND ALONG 74W TUE. A THIRD WAVE ALONG 36W WILL MOVE W TO ALONG 55W SUN NIGHT AND ENTER E CARIBBEAN TUE. SW N ATLC... SE WINDS TO 20 KT IN FL STRAITS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 KT EARLY THIS MORNING. A TROUGH (REMNANTS OF TC JOSEPHINE) EXTENDS FROM 20N72W TO 24N68W AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING UNDER THE W EXTENSION OF AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS ENHANCING IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION NEAR 22N65W PRIOR TO GOES E ECLIPSE. UPPER LEVELS ARE EXTREMELY UNFAVORABLE JUST TO THE W...SO TC DEVELOPMENT UNLIKELY. BUT FOR NOW...SURFACE WINDS VEERING NE TO SE 15-20 KT ALONG TROUGH AXIS...WITH SEAS TO 7 FT. WILL MOVE THIS TROUGH W NW THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND SAT AND TO NW BAHAMAS SUN AND TO FL E COAST MON...BUT BY THEN EXPECT ONLY A 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT. OTHERWISE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NE WATERS THROUGH PERIOD. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... GMZ082 AND GMZ086...BASED ON LAST ADVISORY...TS AND HURCN WARNING N OF 23N W OF 88W. FORECASTER NELSON. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.