000 AGXX40 KNHC 061909 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 305 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXETNDS FROM SE LOUISIANA SW TO 25N92W. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF. W OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS ARE NE 10 KT WITH SEAS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE E EARLY TONIGHT...AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS SUN MORNING. NW WINDS OVER THE FAR NE PART HAVE DIMINISHED TO SW-W 5-10 KT AS TROPICAL STORM HANNA IS NOW WELL N OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE. WINDS ARE E-SE 10-15 KT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST. SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE FAR SW PART OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND MOVING W WITH TIME. NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL AGAIN INITIALIZED PRETTY WELL. SO WILL STICK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY ARISES IN OUTLOOK PERIOD WITH THE HURRICANE IKE COMING INTO THE PICTURE AS LATEST NHC ADVISORY FROM 1500 UTC THIS MORNING FORECASTS IKE TO ENTER THE FAR SE GULF AT TUE AND CONTINUING NW TO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF WED AND THU. WILL EXTEND CURRENT HEADLINE WORDING TO INCLUDE THU...AND EXPAND EXPECTED WARNING CONDITIONS FURTHER W. WILL MENTION INCREASE LIKELIHOOD OF SE SWELL PROPAGATING INTO THE SE AND S CENTRAL GULF IN THE LATTER PERIODS. SW N ATLC... BOTH WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SUBSIDED OVER THE NW WATERS IN THE WAKE OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA NOW RACING NE OVER NE VIRGINIA. MAJOR HURRICANE IKE LOCATED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS ABOUT 135 MILES...215 KN E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND OR 21.6N 69.1W AT 1800 UTC IS MOVING WSW OR 255 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT GUSTS 120 KT. IKE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WSW ACROSS OR NEAR THE FAR SE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND SUN...THEN APPROACH THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 21.2N 75.4W SUN NIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN SOME REACHING NEAR 21.5N 77.6W MON MORNING. IKE IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK NW ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF CUBA LATER ON MON INTO TUE MORNING...THEN EMERGE INTO THE LOWER STRAITS OF FL THROUGH REMAINDER OF TUE BEFORE HEADING INTO THE FAR SE GULF OF MEXICO AS IT REGAINS STRENGTH. THE FORECAST FOR WINDS AND SEAS OVER MUCH OF THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IKE AS WELL ITS INTENSITY IN WINDS AS IT PUSHES ON W THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS INTO TUE MORNING. WILL CONTINUE FOLLOW THE GFDL VERSION OF THE WAVEWATCH MODEL FOR THIS PACKAGE WITH RESPECT TO IKE AS IT SEEMS TO REPRESENT THE ASSOCIATED SEA STATE MUCH BETTER THAN THE REGULAR WAVEWATCH. EXPECT 8-12 FT SEAS TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE OUTWARD A LARGE DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THESE SEAS CROSSING N OF 31N. RIDGE WILL BUILD E TO W JUST TO N OF THE AREA TUE THROUGH THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT WITH MORE TYPICAL TRADES NOW BEING NOTED OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE SEA...WITH THE EXCEPTIONS BEING THE THE S CENTRAL PART WHERE WINDS ARE NE-E 15-20 KT S OF ABOUT 14N BETWEEN 70W-75W AND E-SE 15-20 KT S OF 14N BETWEEN 68W-70W. THESE CONDITIONS WERE SEEN IN A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING...AND BY SHIP "C6VR5" NEAR 12N73.5W AT 1800 UTC. SEAS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 3-5 FT...EXCEPT 2-3 FT RANGE W OF 80W...5-7 FT S OF 14N BETWEEN 68W-75W AND 4-6 FT IN N SWELL OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS ALONG ISLANDS AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE SEA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN EXCEPTION BEING THE NORTHERN WATERS N OF ABOUT 20N WHERE WINDS SHIFTING FROM S-SW TO W-NW WILL BE IN THE MODERATE TO STRONG RANGE AS IKE CROSSES THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND OF CUBA. WINDS MAY BE IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT WITH SEAS 8-11 FT ACROSS THOSE WATERS. WEAK ATLC RIDGE WILL EXIST N OF THE AREA TUE THROUGH THU. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC... HURRICANE WARNING S OF 23N E OF 76W...AMZ080 CARIBBEAN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 19N BETWEEN 71W AND 76W...AMZ082 AND AMZ086 GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.