000 AGXX40 KNHC 060714 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 AM EDT SAT SEP 6 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM S ALABAMA 26N93W LACKS ANY PUNCH TO DISRUPT FLAT PRES PATTERN ACROSS GULF. LIGHT WIND AND SLIGHT SEAS OVER MOST GULF AS HIGH PRES CENTER W OF FRONT MOVES OVER BASIN. WEAK STATIONARY TROUGH OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE START MOVING W INCREASING ELY WINDS S OF 23N T MODERATE AND SEAS TO 4-5 FT. OTHERWISE GULF REMAINS TAME UNTIL EFFECTS OF HURRICANE IKE ARE FELT. IKE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS STRAITS OF FLORIDA/NRN CUBA COASTLINE LATE MON NIGHT INTO GULF AND BE NEAR 24.5N 82.5W LATE WED. REFER TO NHC ADVISORIES UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 / TMCAT4 FOR DETAIL INFORMATION ON POSITION AND INTENSITY OF IKE. MODEL GUIDANCE SLOW TO PICK UP FAST MOVING HURCN IKE APPROACH ACROSS STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AS IKE NEARS N COAST OF CUBA STRONG ELY WINDS AGAINST FLORIDA CURRENT SHOULD INCREASE SEA HEIGHTS WELL ABOVE 10-12 FT PRESENTED AS NWW3 SOLUTION. HURRICANE SPECIFIC GUIDANCE SHOW MUCH HIGHER NUMBERS AS EARLY AS MON NIGHT AND DOUBLE THOSE FIGURES BY TUE. SW N ATLC... TROPICAL STORM HANNA N OF AREA TONIGHT MOVING NW AT 17 KT AWAY FROM SW N ATLC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 55 GUSTS TO 65 KT. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE AND MAINTAINS STORM FORCE WINDS QUITE FAR IN S SEMICIRCLE STILL AFFECTING SW N ATLC BASIN. SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER EXTEND 220 NM IN SE AND 150 NM IN SW QUADRANTS. CONTINUED NW MOVEMENT OF HANNA SHOULD BRING WARNINGS IN SW N ATLC TO AN END BEFORE NOON TODAY. REFER TO NHC ADVISORIES UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 / MIATMCAT3 FOR DETAIL INFORMATION ON POSITION AND INTENSITY OF HANNA. MAJOR HURRICANE IKE JUST N OF MONA PASSAGE MOVE W-SW AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 100 GUSTS TO 120 KT. IKE FORECAST TO MOVE JUST N OF HISPANIOLA TODAY AND SUN THEN APPROACH SE BAHAMA ISLANDS LATE SUN AND MON REACHING N COAST OF CUBA MON NIGHT. IKE IS DANGEROUSLY INTENSE HURRICANE WITH POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER STRENGTHENING AS IT THREATENS MARINE AND LAND INTERESTS. REFER TO NHC ADVISORIES UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 / MIATMCAT4 FOR DETAIL INFORMATION ON POSITION AND INTENSITY OF IKE. WINDWARD PASSAGE PRESENTS AN UNDEFINED HAZARD AS HURRICANE FORCED SWELLS CAN INCREASE DRAMATICALLY IN HEIGHT WHEN FUNNELED THROUGH CHANNEL AND SPREAD INTO NRN CARIBBEAN. MARINE INTERESTS ARE URGED TO EXERT EXTREME CAUTION IN AREA N OF JAMAICA FROM 73W-80W AS SUDDEN LARGE SWELL TRAINS CAN OCCUR. FURTHER E...TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSEPHINE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND NOT EXPECTED TO PRESENT A THREAT TO MARINE INTEREST IN SW N ATLC. THE LAST ADVISORY FOR T.D. JOSEPHINE WILL BE ISSUED BY NHC AT 5 AM EDT UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 / MIATMCAT5. CARIBBEAN SEA... NW SECTIONS OF BASIN MIGHT FEEL IMPACT OF IKE SPECIALLY NEAR WINDWARD PASSAGE AS MENTIONED ABOVE. OTHERWISE...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN CAUSED BY HURCN IKE MAINTAINS MODERATE WIND WITH SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN. THIS CHANGES TUE AS IKE MOVES FURTHER W AND ATLC RIDGE REBUILD IN ITS WAKE. WITH INCREASING PRES WIND S OF 14N INCREASE IN ERN HALF OF BASIN. REGION S OF CUBA IN NW CARIBBEAN MIGHT FEEL SOME STRONGER WINDS DEPENDING ON ENCROACHMENT OF IKE INTO ISLAND AND PROTECTION FROM MOUNTAIN RIDGE...BUT TROPICAL STORM WARNING CANNOT BE TOTALLY DISCOUNTED FOR THAT ZONE. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC... HURRICANE WARNING FROM 20N TO 24N W OF 66W...AMZ080 CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.