000 AGXX40 KNHC 051838 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT FRI SEP 5 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SE LOUISIANA SW TO SOUTHERN TEXAS. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE PRESENT OVER ALMOST THE ENTIRE GULF AS A WEAK HIGH CENTER CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN GULF NEAR 26N88W 1017 MB. W OF THE BOUNDARY...WINDS ARE N-NE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE. THE TROUGH SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE E THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE SAT AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BECOME NW-N 15 KT OVER THE FAR NE PART AS SEEN IN BUOY REPORTS FROM THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN RESPONSE THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM HANNA OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC. WINDS ARE NE-E 10-15 KT OVER THE SW ZONE. WINDS OVER THE FAR NE PORTION ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME W-NW AND DIMINISH TO 10 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. ONLY QUESTIONABLE PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE LATE TUE INTO WED AS LATEST NHC ADVISORY FROM 1500 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWS HURRICANE IKE ENTERING THE FAR SE GULF AT THAT TIME. FOR NOW...WILL BUILD SEAS IN THAT AREA ...AND CONTINUE WITH HEADLINE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS LATE TUE AND WED. SW N ATLC... TROPICAL STORM HANNA CENTERED NEAR 28.9N 79.2W 980 MB AT 05/1500 UTC MOVING NW OR 325 DEG AT 17 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS TO 65 KT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND IT CONTINUES TO MAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE NW PART OF THE ZONE WITH 12 FT SEAS EXTENDING OUTWARD 360 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT...220 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT...150 NM IN THE SW QUADRANT AND 300 NM IN THE NW QUADRANT. NOAA BUOY 41010 IS REPORTING SE WINDS OF 35 KT WITH CURRENT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT OF 17 FT...BUT HAD REPORTED 20 FT AT 1500 UTC. LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY HAS HANNA MOVING TO 31.2N 79.7W EARLY TONIGHT...THEN INLAND S CAROLINA AT 34.5N 79.1W SAT MORNING. THIS FORECAST HAS THE 34 KT WIND RADII LIFTING N OF THE AFFECT ATLC WATERS SAT MORNING. MAJOR HURRICANE IKE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC JUST N OF THE TROPICAL ATLC ZONE NEAR 23.2N 62.7W 954 MB AT 1500 UTC IS MOVING W OR 290 DEG AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT GUSTS TO 130 KT. IKE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WSW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS IT WEAKENS A LITTLE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. TROPICAL FORCE WINDS WILL CLIP THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC TONIGHT ...SO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA. IKE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SE BAHAMAS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...AND THEN TRACK WNW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AS IT STRENGTHENS LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT AND INTO MON...AND OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND CENTRAL CUBA LATE MON AND TUE. IKE IS THEN FORECAST TO ENTER THE FAR SE GULF OF MEXICO PERHAPS TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. A GREAT MAJORITY OF FORECAST WINDS AND SEAS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IKE AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY IT WILL CARRY THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE FOLLOW THE GFDL VERSION OF THE WAVEWATCH MODEL FOR THIS PACKAGE WITH RESPECT TO IKE AS IT SEEMS TO REPRESENT THE ASSOCIATED SEA STATE MUCH BETTER THAN THE REGULAR WAVEWATCH. EXPECT 8-12 FT SEAS TO RADIATE OUTWARD A LARGE DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THESE SEAS CROSSING N OF 31N. RIDGE WILL BUILD SW INTO THE NE PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE SUN THROUGH TUE. FURTHER E...TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS CENTERED NEAR 15.8N 34.8W AT 1500 UTC MOVING WNW OR 300 DEG AT 7 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN UNDER CONSIDERABLE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS IT IS NOTED IN CLEARLY EXPOSED CENTER. THE NHC 1500 UTC ADVISORY FORECASTS JOSEPHINE TO BE NEAR 25.5N 51.0W BY WED MORNING AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. ASSOCIATED SWELL EARLIER THOUGHT TO IMPACT THE AREA...MAY NOW NOT BE ANY SIGNIFICANT FROM SEAS ALREADY BEING OBSERVED IN THE FAR E TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... SLY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN COMPARED TO SPEEDS OBSERVED 24 HOURS AGO AS TROPICAL STORM HANNA OVER THE NW PART OF THE SW N ATLC PULLS FURTHER N. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS NEAR AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... AND THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS S OF 14N BETWEEN 68W-72W WHERE WINDS THERE ARE E-SE 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAS NOTED IN RECENT AND CURRENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS IN A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1100 UTC THIS MORNING. SEAS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 3-5 FT...EXCEPT LOWER IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE W OF 80W...AND 5-7 FT IN E-SE SWELL IN THE E PORTION OF THE SEA. CONDITIONS WILL BE RATHER QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MORE TYPICAL ELY TRADES BECOMING ESTABLISHED. WINDS MAY INCREASE OVER THE MIDDLE SECTION OF THE TUE AND WED AS ATLC RIDGING BUILDS SW INTO THE FAR NE WATERS BEHIND HURRICANE IKE PASSING TO THE N OF THE AREA. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC... HURRICANE WARNING FROM 21N TO 24N E OF 68W...AMZ080 TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 26N W OF 75W AND ALSO FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 64W AND 65W...AMZ080 AND AMZ087. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.