000 AGXX40 KNHC 040041 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 835 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2008 UPDATED TO INCLUDE LATEST INFORMATION ON HURRICANE IKE MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF HURRICANE IKE SHOW THE STORM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED. THE STORM IS CENTERED NEAR 21.7N 53.2W OR ABOUT 560 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 04/0000 UTC MOVING W-NW AT 16 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST ON FRIDAY...TAKING IKE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN INTO THE SW N ATLC WATERS W OF 65W. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 100 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN/HUFFMAN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS WHATS LEFT OF GUSTAV MOVES SLOWLY NWD CENTERED OVER SW ARKANSAS. ITS ASSOCIATED TRAILING TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES AND SFC DATA JUST OFF THE TEXAS COAST. THE ONLY AREA OF SIGNIFICANT WINDS...SW WINDS 15-20 KT...ARE OVER THE FAR NW WATERS BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AS GUSTAV OR ITS REMNANTS GETS PICKED UP BY AN UPPER TROUGH. HANNA HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE FOR DAYS NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS. OFFICIAL TRACK FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING E AND SLOWING WITH CLOSEST APPROACH TO FLORIDA NOW EXPECTED ON FRI. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE DELAYED CHANGE IN WIND DIR AND TRENDED WINDS DOWN SLIGHTLY OVER THE E WATERS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IF TRACK PHILOSOPHY CHANGES. SW N ATLC... TROPICAL STORM HANNA HAS BEEN BATTLING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR QUITE A WHILE LEADING TO THE OBSERVED WEAKENING. THE STORM HAS ALSO CHANGED IN STRUCTURE DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER LOW TO ITS NW. NONETHELESS...MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS OVER MUCH OF THE ZONE WITH 12 FT SEAS EXTENDING OUTWARD WITHIN 360 NM NW AND 300 NM NE QUADRANTS. HANNA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NW NEAR OR OVER THE BAHAMA CHAIN AND STRENGTHEN BACK TO A HURRICANE BY EARLY FRI. THEREAFTER...A CONTINUED NW MOTION TOWARD THE SE U.S. COAST FRI AND SAT IS EXPECTED. TROPICAL STORM IKE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS MOVING AT A FAIRLY QUICK PACE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AND MOVE INTO THE SE CORNER OF THE ZONE LATE FRI AND THEN GENERALLY MOVE W OR SW...DUE TO A NE-SW ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS N...N OF HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS OVER THE WEEKEND. TROP N ATLC... TROPICAL STORM IKE IS CLOSING IN ON THIS ZONE. EARLIER QSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE W PERIPHERY OF ITS CIRCULATION HAS NOT YET CROSSED 55W...BUT IT WILL LATER TODAY. HURRICANE WARNING IS POSTED N OF 20N...HOWEVER BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST (WHICH HAS SHIFTED N IN THE SHORT TERM) THIS CAN PROBABLY BE SHAVED TO A SMALLER PORTION. IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W OF THE AREA SAT. BEYOND THAT...ATTENTION TURNS TO JOSEPHINE BUT FORECAST KEEPS IT E OF THE ZONE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...JOSEPHINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT APPROACHES DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS. HOWEVER...ITS ASSOCIATED SWELL MAY BEGIN TO PROPAGATE OVER THE N WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MUCH OF THE N CENTRAL AND NE CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA. STRONGEST WINDS...NW 25-30 KT...ARE OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY LARGE ZONE OF S TO SW 20-25 KT WINDS EXIST N OF 15N BETWEEN 65W-75W. WITH THIS WIND REGIME HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA WHICH MAY BE AS HIGH AS 9 OR 10 FT...CONSIDERING THE 7 FT REPORT AS BUOY 42058 NEAR 15N75W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HANNA FINALLY MAKES ITS MOVE NW AWAY FROM THE REGION. BASED ON TODAY'S GUIDANCE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW HIGH SEAS CRITERIA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER ...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MORE TYPICAL ELY TRADES BECOMING ESTABLISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR N WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF IKE. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC... TROPICAL STORM WARNING ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA S OF 28N BETWEEN 67W AND 79W...AMZ080 HURRICANE WARNING N OF 20N ASSOCIATED WITH IKE...AMZ087 CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.