000 AGXX40 KNHC 031732 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 135 PM EDT WED SEP 3 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS WHATS LEFT OF GUSTAV MOVES SLOWLY NWD CENTERED OVER SW ARKANSAS. ITS ASSOCIATED TRAILING TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES AND SFC DATA JUST OFF THE TEXAS COAST. THE ONLY AREA OF SIGNIFICANT WINDS...SW WINDS 15-20 KT...ARE OVER THE FAR NW WATERS BUT THESE SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AS GUSTAV OR ITS REMNANTS GETS PICKED UP BY AN UPPER TROUGH. HANNA HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE FOR DAYS NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS. OFFICIAL TRACK FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING E AND SLOWING WITH CLOSEST APPROACH TO FLORIDA NOW EXPECTED ON FRI. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE DELAYED CHANGE IN WIND DIR AND TRENDED WINDS DOWN SLIGHTLY OVER THE E WATERS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IF TRACK PHILOSPHY CHANGES. SW N ATLC... TROPICAL STORM HANNA HAS BEEN BATTLING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR QUITE A WHILE LEADING TO THE OBSERVED WEAKENING. THE STORM HAS ALSO CHANGED IN STRUCTURE DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER LOW TO ITS NW. NONETHELESS...MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN EXTREMELY HAZORDOUS OVER MUCH OF THE ZONE WITH 12 FT SEAS EXTENDING OUTWARD WITHIN 360 NM NW AND 300 NM NE QUADRANTS. HANNA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NW NEAR OR OVER THE BAHAMA CHAIN AND STRENTHEN BACK TO A HURRICANE BY EARLY FRI. THERAFTER...A CONTINUED NW MOTION TOWARD THE SE U.S. COAST FRI AND SAT IS EXPECTED. TROPICAL STORM IKE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS MOVING AT A FAIRLY QUICK PACE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AND MOVE INTO THE SE CORNER OF THE ZONE LATE FRI AND THEN GENERALLY MOVE W OR SW...DUE TO A NE-SW ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS N...N OF HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS OVER THE WEEKEND. TROP N ATLC... TROPICAL STORM IKE IS CLOSING IN ON THIS ZONE. EARLIER QSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE W PERIPHERY OF ITS CIRCULATION HAS NOT YET CROSSED 55W...BUT IT WILL LATER TODAY. HURRICANE WARNING IS POSTED N OF 20N...HOWEVER BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST (WHICH HAS SHIFTED N IN THE SHORT TERM) THIS CAN PROBABLY BE SHAVED TO A SMALLER PORTION. IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W OF THE AREA SAT. BEYOND THAT...ATTENTION TURNS TO JOSEPHINE BUT FORECAST KEEPS IT E OF THE ZONE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...JOSEPHINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT APPROACHES DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS. HOWEVER...ITS ASSOCIATED SWELL MAY BEGIN TO PROPOGATE OVER THE N WATERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MUCH OF THE N CENTRAL AND NE CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA. STRONGEST WINDS...NW 25-30 KT...ARE OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. HOWEVER...A FAIRLY LARGE ZONE OF S TO SW 20-25 KT WINDS EXIST N OF 15N BETWEEN 65W-75W. WITH THIS WIND REGIME HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA WHICH MAY BE AS HIGH AS 9 OR 10 FT...CONSIDERING THE 7 FT REPORT AS BUOY 42058 NEAR 15N75W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING AS HANNA FINALLY MAKES ITS MOVE NW AWAY FROM THE REGION. BASED ON TODAY'S GUIDANCE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW HIGH SEAS CRITERIA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THERAFTER ...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MORE TYPICAL ELY TRADES BECOMING ESTABLISHED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE FAR N WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF IKE. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC... TROPICAL STORM WARNING ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA S OF 28N BETWEEN 67W AND 79W...AMZ080 HURRICANE WARNING N OF 20N ASSOCIATED WITH IKE...AMZ087 CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.