000 AGXX40 KNHC 021651 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1250 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUSTAV CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY N CENTERED OVER NW LOUISIANA. GUSTAV STILL HAS A WELL DEFINED RADAR PRESENTATION WITH A CLEAR CENTER AND RAINBANDS SWIRLING ABOUT IT WITH THE OUTERMOST RAINBANDS STILL AFFECTING THE FAR N PORTION OF THE NW WATERS. NOW THAT GUSTAV IS WELL INLAND...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED TO 20-25 KT N OF 27N BETWEEN 89W-94W WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 6-9 FT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE FALLING BELOW 20 KT AND 8 FT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A WEAK TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE NW WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT...OTHERWISE WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES WILL HOLD FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. BY THU AND FRI...THE FORECAST DEPENDS UPON THE TRACK OF HANNA. BASED ON THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE E WATERS THU AND FRI AS THE STORM MOVES OVER OR PARALLELS THE E COAST OF FLORIDA. SW N ATLC... HANNA WAS DOWNGRADED BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM THIS MORNING AS THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE GIVEN IN SOME TO THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. AN AIRFORCE RECON WILL BE INVESTIGATING SHORTLY TO BETTER ESTIMATE ITS INTENSITY. THE FUTURE TRACK OF HANNA CONTINUES TO SHOW SLOW NW MOTION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED OVER THE SE U.S. FRI. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES SHOW HANNA STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE ONCE AGAIN SO HAVE HEADLINED APPROPRIATELY. THE 20 KT AND 8 FT THRESHOLD COVERS MUCH OF THE ZONE S OF 27N...OF COURSE SIGNIFICANTLY WORSENING NEAR THE CORE OF HANNA... AND THIS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NW WITH THE STORM. AS HANNA MOVES OUT OF THE ZONE...STRENGTHENING IKE WILL BE MOVING IN. LATEST FORECAST HAS IKE CROSSING INTO THE SE PART OF THE ZONE ON FRI AS A HURRICANE AND THEN TRACKING DUE W N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES THIS WEEKEND. KEPT WORDING VAGUE SINCE IT REMAINS IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. TROP N ATLC... WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES AREA NEAR 20N57W IS CAUSING VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE N PORTION AND MAINLY SE TO S WINDS ELSEWHERE. BIG STORY FOR THE REGION IS STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM IKE CENTERED E OF THE ZONE. LATEST FORECAST HAS IKE MOVING TOWARD/INTO THE NE WATERS WED NIGHT AND CROSSING THE N PORTION THROUGH LATE FRI AS A HURRICANE. KEPT HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN MORNING PACKAGE N OF 19N BUT WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE IKE MOVES W OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...ATTENTION TURNS TO JOSEPHINE WHICH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH BUT STAY E OR NE OF THE ZONE THIS WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN... STRONG SW WINDS AND STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA. UNUSUAL W WINDS ARE OBSERVED WELL S TOWARD THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DUE TO HANNA'S LARGE CIRCULATION AND TRAILING TROUGH. HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PULL NW FARTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING THE STRONG WINDS TO SHRINK. E TO SE TRADES WILL EVENTUALLY RESUME FRI AND THIS WEEKEND...EXCEPT FOR THE NE WATERS DUE TO THE NEARBY PRESENCE OF IKE (WHICH WILL BE MOVING N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES). WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC... TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 24N BETWEEN 71W AND 76W...AMZ080 CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.