000 AGXX40 KNHC 291751 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. TROPICAL STORM HANNA NEAR 21.3N62.7W AT 1500 UTC IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A NW TRACK THROUGH SUN MORNING WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT REACHES 25.1N70.1W. SUN THROUGH TUE...HANNA IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A SOUTHERLY TURN...MOVING SW TOWARD THE E BAHAMAS TO NEAR 23.0N73.5W TUE MORN. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON BUILDING THE MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE OH VALLEY...FORCING HANNA SOUTH. THE 12Z GFS...NOGAPS...AND 00Z/29 ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...WITH THE UKMET SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER CARRYING THE SYSTEM W BY TUE. FOR DETAILS ON HANNA...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC OR TCMAT3. FARTHER E...A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 42W WITH AN EMBEDDED LOW AT 18N42W IS MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LARGE REGION OF HIGH WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH IT N OF THE EMBEDDED LOW. QUIKSCAT FROM 0900 UTC REVEALED A REGION OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS SPANNING FROM 27W TO 55W AND THE 12Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS SUPPORTS THE MAJORITY OF THIS REGION IN SEAS BETWEEN 8 AND 11 FT. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE AS IT PASSES W UNTIL MON MORN WHEN THE NOGAPS BECOMES THE MOST N SOLUTION WITH THE EMBEDDED SFC LOW. THE GFS SOLUTION LOOKED REASONABLE HERE. TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV NEAR 18.6N 78.8W AT 1500 UTC IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY AS IT REACHES 19.3N80.0W AND CONTINUES ON A NW PATH INTO W CUBA BY SAT EVENING NEAR 22.6N 83.8W...MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE SAT/EARLY SUN. A MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SE CONUS IN ADDITION TO WEAKENING OF THE W EDGE OF THE N ATLC RIDGE BY T.S. HANNA SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH OF A BREAK IN THE RIDGE N OF GUSTAV TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MOVE NW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 24.3N85.7W SUN MORNING...27.5N89.0W MON MORNING...AND MOVE INLAND INTO SOUTHERN LA NEAR 29.5N91.0W TUE MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC OR TCMAT2 FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON GUSTAV. ELSEWHERE...A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 59W WILL MOVE W INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA SAT AND HELP TO ELEVATE SEAS IN THE E CARIBBEAN TO 5 FT OR MORE. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO MOVE W FASTER THAN T.S. HANNA TO ITS N...ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP BEHIND THIS WAVE AND E OF HANNA BY SUN WHICH SHOULD TRANSPORT TROPICAL MOISTURE N TOWARD HANNA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST ON THE N SIDE OF HANNA...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION N OF THE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC... TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 20N E OF 61W...AMZ087 TROPICAL STORM WARNING E OF 70W BETWEEN 22N AND 27N...AMZ080 CARIBBEAN... HURRICANE WARNING N OF 17N E OF 83W...AMZ082 GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.