000 AGXX40 KNHC 281800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N94W CURRENTLY HAS A LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT FAVORING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IT DOES WARRANT WATCHING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE GUSTAV APPROACHES FROM THE E SE. ALTHOUGH RAIN FLAGGED...THERE WERE RETURNS FROM QUIKSCAT THAT INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS NEAR THE LOW CENTER. ELSEWHERE...SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 27N IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENED AS THE MID LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS PUSHES INTO THE SE TONIGHT AND FRI AND THE RIDGE WILL BE FORCED N OF FORECAST WATERS BY GUSTAV BY THE WEEKEND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR GUSTAV MOVES THE SYSTEM INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF AS A HURRICANE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING. THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AS GUSTAV MOVES INTO THE GULF WHILE THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE THE GLOBAL MODEL IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING. MARINE INTERESTS IN THE GULF SHOULD KEEP ADVISED OF THE GUSTAV INTENSITY. SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC OR TCMAT2. CARIBBEAN SEA... WHILE THE E CARIBBEAN REMAINS REASONABLY QUIET WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FT AT THE MOMENT...TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV IS CHURNING NEAR EASTERN JAMAICA AT 17.9N76.1W AT 1500 UTC. GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH JAMAICA AND INTENSIFY WHILE IT TAKES A MORE N OF W TURN TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGING TO ITS N IS BROKEN DOWN BY THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SE FROM THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT AND FRI. GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE SAT TO EARLY SUN. AS GUSTAV MOVES NW...THE LIGHT SE WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS A TROPICAL WAVE NOW EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...FOLLOWED BY RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC. ATLC WATERS S OF 31N AND W OF 55W... TROPICAL STORM HANNA NEAR 21N60W AT 1500 UTC. A 13 FT SHIP OB NEAR 24N61W...270 NM FROM THE SYSTEM CENTER AT 1500 UTC...HAS WARRANTED AN EXPANSION OF THE 12 FT SEAS IN THE NW QUADRANT WHILE QUIKSCAT IMAGERY FROM 0920 UTC SUPPORTS WINDS IN THE 25 TO 20 KT RANGE OUT TO A SIMILAR RADIUS IN THE NW QUADRANT. HANNA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS BEFORE SLOWING ITS N PROGRESS AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE N OF HANNA...WEDGED BETWEEN HANNA AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 40N62W. SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC OR TCMAT3 FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR HANNA. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC... TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 19N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W...AMZ087 CARIBBEAN... HURRICANE WARNING N OF 17N E OF 81W...AMZ082 GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.