000 AGXX40 KNHC 280603 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1013 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING E ALONG ROUGHLY 27N TOWARD TAMPA FLORIDA. BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF...WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AROUND 15 KT MAINLY OVER THE STERN GULF WATERS. SEA HEIGHTS RANGE 1 TO 3 FT OVERALL. WINDS OVER THE SE AND SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WILL INCREASE STARTING EARLY FRI...AS TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV MOVES NW ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA AND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF BY LATE SAT AS A HURRICANE. GUSTAV IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY LATE MON. MARINE INTERESTS IN THE GULF SHOULD KEEP ADVISED OF THE GUSTAV INTENSITY. SEE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC OR TCMAT2. CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS CENTERED NEAR 18.8N 75.4W AT 28/0300Z OR ABOUT 205 MILES W OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 100 MILES S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. SLOW RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND GUSTAV COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH BY FRIDAY AS IT MOVES WNW ALONG SOUTHERN CUBAN COAST...REACHING THE FAR WESTERN TIP OF CUBA BY LATE SAT. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 40 KT WINDS AT 23Z. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THE SAME TIME SHOWED A BROAD SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS APPROXIMATELY 200 TO THE WEST OF GUSTAV BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA. LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. AS GUSTAV MOVES NW...THE LIGHT SE WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL GULF AS A TROPICAL WAVE NOW EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...FOLLOWED BY RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC. ATLC WATERS S OF 31N AND W OF 55W... CURRENTLY A 1014 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 24N. MODERATE TO FRESH E FLOW IS NOTED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO THE NORTH OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A 1008 MB LOW PRES AREA CENTERED NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N58W. THE CONVECTION AROUND THIS LOW IS BETTER ORGANIZED THAN BEFORE...AND TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS INCREASING LIKELY SOMETIME TODAY. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE NNW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING ON THE NE SIDE OF THE CENTER...STAYING MAINLY BETWEEN 55W AND 65W TOWARDS BERMUDA THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... HURCN WARNING N OF 18N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W...AMZ086 AND AMZ082 GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.