000 AGXX40 KNHC 271912 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 310 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... PER BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES EXTENDS FROM NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA TO 25N90W TO THEN NW TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR CORPUS CRISTI. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS PERSIST AROUND THE RIDGE. SE WINDS TO 15 KT ARE STILL EVIDENT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE PRIMARILY TO THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE S OF THE AREA. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY LIGHT SE-S WINDS PREVAIL S AND OF THE RIDGE WHILE LIGHT SW-W WINDS ARE N OF THE RIDGE. SEA STATE AS NOTED BY THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SEAS ARE 3-4 FT. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS...LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED AT LEAST THROUGH THU. BEYOND THAT...WIND AND SEAS CONDITIONS OVER PRIMARILY THE E AND MIDDLE GULF IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV PRESENTLY JUST W OF THE SW COAST OF HAITI. LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY HAS GUSTAV BECOMING A HURRICANE AGAIN JUST S OF EASTERN CUBA THU NIGHT AS IT TRACKS WNW THROUGH EARLY FRI...THEN TURN NW OVER OR S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA SAT AND MOVE INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF BY LATE SAT...AND INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL GULF SUN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO INCREASE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE GULF BY FRI AHEAD OF THE STORM...AND THIS TREND WILL BE REFLECTED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS CENTERED NEAR 18.8N 74.0W OR ABOUT 140 MILES W OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT 90 MILES SSE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. GUSTAV IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THU NIGHT AS IT MOVES WNW S OF CUBA THROUGH LATE FRI...THEN TURN NW OVER OR S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA SAT AND MOVE INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF BY LATE SAT AND INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL GULF SUN. GUSTAV IS THEN FORECAST TO POSSIBLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF BY MON MORNING. THE MAIN IMPACT REGARDING WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE OVER WATERS N OF 18N W OF 74W. CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT W OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU AFTERNOON...AND TO NW OF THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE SAT AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. QUIKSCAT...BUOY AND SHIP REPORTS FROM ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN FROM THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN SHOWING FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEA STATE...EXCEPT IN THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHERE QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SHIP "A8HM" SHOWED SE WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN BRIEF INSTANCES THROUGH MON. ATLC WATERS S OF 31N AND W OF 55W... RATHER LIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IS ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND FAIRLY LOW SEAS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION OR THE TIME BEING IS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS S OF ABOUT 22N BETWEEN 71W-77W INCLUDING SE BAHAMAS WHERE NE-E WINDS ARE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE IN A STRONGER PRES GRADIENT CREATED BY CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV IMPACTING HAITI... THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SOON EASTERN CUBA. THIS AREA OF WINDS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE WESTWARD OVER CUBA AND THE WATERS SW OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH FRI AS GUSTAV TRACKS TOWARDS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAST MOVING LOW CLOUDS STREAMERS DEVELOPING OFF THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF THESE STRONGER WINDS. TO THE SE...A 1011 MB LOW IS NEAR 19N57W DRIFTING WNW. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THAN 24 HOURS AGO...AND NOW CARRIES A POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO NEAR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC BY POSSIBLY FRI NIGHT...AND MOVE NNW TO THE FAR NE PART SAT THROUGH MON. WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE EAST PORTION WILL MAY BE INFLUENCED TO SOME EXTENT BY THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH ITS EXACT FUTURE TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT BULK OF THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER ITS E SEMICIRCLE AND MAY NEVER MAKE IT INTO THE FAR E ATLC PORTION ...BUT WILL SHOW SOME INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THAT AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE LOW MAKING A STRONGER IMPACT INTO THOSE WATERS. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... HURCN WARNING N OF 18N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W...AMZ086 AND AMZ082 GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.