000 AGXX40 KNHC 261832 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... QUIKSCAT DATA FROM NEAR 1200 UTC THIS MORNING STILLED SHOWED SW 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE N CENTRAL AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-88W...HOWEVER LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING SW-W WINDS OF 15 KT THERE. GRADIENT THERE IS FINALLY LETTING UP AS LOW PRES OVER NW ALABAMA...REMNANTS OF FAY...MOVES NNE AND WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEA STATE IS OBSERVED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE E PART OF THE SW GULF NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT WHERE NOTED IN THE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE CURRENTLY FROM S FL AND THE FL KEYS TO 23N90W SHOULD LIFT N TO ALONG 25N WED AND WED NIGHT ...THEN REFORM AS A WEAK HIGH CENTER OVER THE N CENTRAL THU AND FRI AND SHIFT TO THE FAR NORTHERN GULF SAT AND SUN. LOOKING AHEAD...HURRICANE GUSTAV...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SW COAST OF HAITI IS FORECAST PER LATEST NHC ADVISORY TO TRACK NW S OF THE COAST OF CUBAN COAST THROUGH EARLY SAT THEN PASS OVER JUST S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA LATER SAT INTO SUN. WITH THIS MIND WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE FAR SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FL IN ADVANCE OF GUSTAVE FRI...THEN EXPECTED HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL BE HEADLINE FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE EASTERN AND MIDDLE GULF FOR SAT AND SUN. ALSO...EXPECT PRES GRADIENT TO GRADUALLY INCREASE N OF THE IMPACTED AREA ON SAT AND SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... LATEST NHC ADVISORY ISSUED AT 1500 UTC HAS HURRICANE GUSTAV LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 72.4W OR ABOUT 50 NM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI...OR ABOUT 240 NM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. GUSTAV IS MOVING NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KT GUSTS TO 100 KT. GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH EARLY SAT BEFORE TURNING MORE NW AND ENTERING THE FAR SE GULF LATER ON SAT. ASSOCIATED EFFECTS TO WINDS AND SEAS ARE PRESENTLY FORECAST TO BE CONFINED TO THE BOUNDARY N OF 16N BETWEEN 71W-75W THROUGH WED NIGHT...AND TO N OF 18N W OF 75W THU THROUGH SAT WITH ELSEWHERE WINDS OF 20-33 KT AND SEAS OF 8-12 FT OVER THE AREA N OF 15N BETWEEN 71W -75W...AND N OF 18N BETWEEN 73W-81W BY FRI WITH WIND CONDITIONS LIFTING NW OF THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING. HIGH SEA STATE WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO RELY ON THE GFDL VERSION OF THE NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE AS WAVEWATCH AGAIN IS TOO LOW WITH SEAS. S ATLC WATERS S OF 31N AND W OF 55W... A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N59W TO 21N64W MOVING WNW 5-10 KT WILL IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM JUST PAST 1000 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED MANY RAIN-FLAGGED WINDS VECTORS OF 25-30 KT ACROSS THE TROUGH BUT THIS WAS ATTRIBUTED TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTM ACTIVITY W OF THE TROUGH TO 65W. NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT AREA WELL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO 68W FROM 24N-29N. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS. A WEAK 1012 MB LOW MOVING SLOWLY WNW IS NEAR 20N56W WITH A TROUGH SE TO 17N53W. NE WINDS OF 20 KT CONTINUE TO THE N OF THE LOW DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. TO THE W...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA THROUGH WED THEN SHIFT NW AHEAD OF TROUGH TO THE E. FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TO NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS THROUGH FRI. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY REPORTS FROM SEVERAL SHIPS THIS MORNING OF NE-E 20 KT WINDS OVER WATERS S OF 23N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND E CUBA. NOW THAT THE TRACK OF GUSTAV IS FURTHER S THAN 24 HOURS...THE IMPACT ON THE ATLC WATERS WILL BE SEEN AS ELY WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 30 KT OVER THE FAR SW WATERS SW OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH SAT. SEAS THERE SHOULD BUILD UP TO 8 FT. THIS FORECAST MAY CHANGE BASED ON ANY FUTURE AND OR TRACK CHANGES GUSTAV MAY UNDERGO. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... HURCN WARNING N OF 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W...AMZ086 AND AMZ082 GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER. 000 AGXX40 KNHC 261832 RRA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... QUIKSCAT DATA FROM NEAR 1200 UTC THIS MORNING STILLED SHOWED SW 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE N CENTRAL AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 86W-88W...HOWEVER LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING SW-W WINDS OF 15 KT THERE. GRADIENT THERE IS FINALLY LETTING UP AS LOW PRES OVER NW ALABAMA...REMNANTS OF FAY...MOVES NNE AND WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEA STATE IS OBSERVED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE E PART OF THE SW GULF NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT WHERE NOTED IN THE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE CURRENTLY FROM S FL AND THE FL KEYS TO 23N90W SHOULD LIFT N TO ALONG 25N WED AND WED NIGHT ...THEN REFORM AS A WEAK HIGH CENTER OVER THE N CENTRAL THU AND FRI AND SHIFT TO THE FAR NORTHERN GULF SAT AND SUN. LOOKING AHEAD...HURRICANE GUSTAV...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SW COAST OF HAITI IS FORECAST PER LATEST NHC ADVISORY TO TRACK NW S OF THE COAST OF CUBAN COAST THROUGH EARLY SAT THEN PASS OVER JUST S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA LATER SAT INTO SUN. WITH THIS MIND WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE FAR SE GULF AND STRAITS OF FL IN ADVANCE OF GUSTAVE FRI...THEN EXPECTED HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL BE HEADLINED FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE EASTERN AND MIDDLE GULF FOR SAT AND SUN. ALSO...EXPECT PRES GRADIENT TO GRADUALLY INCREASE N OF THE IMPACTED AREA ON SAT AND SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... LATEST NHC ADVISORY ISSUED AT 1500 UTC HAS HURRICANE GUSTAV LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 72.4W OR ABOUT 50 NM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI...OR ABOUT 240 NM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. GUSTAV IS MOVING NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KT GUSTS TO 100 KT. GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH EARLY SAT BEFORE TURNING MORE NW AND ENTERING THE FAR SE GULF LATER ON SAT. ASSOCIATED EFFECTS TO WINDS AND SEAS ARE PRESENTLY FORECAST TO BE CONFINED TO THE BOUNDARY N OF 16N BETWEEN 71W-75W THROUGH WED NIGHT...AND TO N OF 18N W OF 75W THU THROUGH SAT WITH ELSEWHERE WINDS OF 20-33 KT AND SEAS OF 8-12 FT OVER THE AREA N OF 15N BETWEEN 71W -75W...AND N OF 18N BETWEEN 73W-81W BY FRI WITH WIND CONDITIONS LIFTING NW OF THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING. HIGH SEA STATE WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO RELY ON THE GFDL VERSION OF THE NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE AS WAVEWATCH AGAIN IS TOO LOW WITH SEAS. S ATLC WATERS S OF 31N AND W OF 55W... A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N59W TO 21N64W MOVING WNW 5-10 KT WILL IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM JUST PAST 1000 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED MANY RAIN-FLAGGED WINDS VECTORS OF 25-30 KT ACROSS THE TROUGH BUT THIS WAS ATTRIBUTED TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTM ACTIVITY W OF THE TROUGH TO 65W. NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT AREA WELL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO 68W FROM 24N-29N. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS. A WEAK 1012 MB LOW MOVING SLOWLY WNW IS NEAR 20N56W WITH A TROUGH SE TO 17N53W. NE WINDS OF 20 KT CONTINUE TO THE N OF THE LOW DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. TO THE W...WEAK HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA THROUGH WED THEN SHIFT NW AHEAD OF TROUGH TO THE E. FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TO NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS THROUGH FRI. THIS WAS SUPPORTED BY REPORTS FROM SEVERAL SHIPS THIS MORNING OF NE-E 20 KT WINDS OVER WATERS S OF 23N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND E CUBA. NOW THAT THE TRACK OF GUSTAV IS FURTHER S THAN 24 HOURS...THE IMPACT ON THE ATLC WATERS WILL BE SEEN AS ELY WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 30 KT OVER THE FAR SW WATERS SW OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH SAT. SEAS THERE SHOULD BUILD UP TO 8 FT. THIS FORECAST MAY CHANGE BASED ON ANY FUTURE AND OR TRACK CHANGES GUSTAV MAY UNDERGO. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... HURCN WARNING N OF 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 77W...AMZ086 AND AMZ082 GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.