000 AGXX40 KNHC 251947 RRA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 345 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... REMNANT LOW OF FAY IS CENTERED OVERS MISSISSIPPI IS ALLOWING FOR A STRONG GRADIENT OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN 87W AND 92W WHERE SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE BEING REPORTED BY BUOYS. SEAS THERE ARE MAXING OUT TO 7 FT. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO DECREASE TUE AS THE LOW PULLS FURTHER TO THE NE. ELSEWHERE ...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ARE NOTED WITH WEAK RIDGING ALONG 24N E OF 90W. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N TO 27N FRI AND SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV HAS FORMED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEAS NEAR 15.8N 70.5W AT 1800 UTC IS MOVING NW AT 12 KT WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KT GUSTS T0 60 KT. GUSTAV WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE BY TUE MORNING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE SW COAST OF HAITI NEAR 17.6N 72.2W...THEN TO NEAR 18.8N 73.3W TUE NIGHT AND ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TOWARDS EASTERN CUBA NEAR 19.7N 74.2W BY WED MORNING. GUSTAV IS THEN FORECAST TO WEAKEN BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM THU MORNING ON A NW TRACK ALONG NEAR 21.0N 75.5W...AND PARALLEL THE REMAINDER OF THE COAST OF CUBA LATER ON FRI. WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND NE PORTION OF THE SEA WILL BE HEAVILY AFFECTED BY GUSTAV'S FUTURE TRACK AND STRENGTH. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL REFLECT THESE UPCOMING CHANGES. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH LATE WED. ATLC WATERS S OF 31N AND W OF 55W... A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE PART OF THE AREA BY SAT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED LOW CURRENTLY ALONG 55W WITH A 1010 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 22N. THE TROUGH AND LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN A WNW DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS PER MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT THIS PROJECTION HAS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS THIS FEATURE INTERACTS WITH A TROUGH AHEAD OF IT ALONG 61W. TIGHT GRADIENT N OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW E-SE WINDS OF 20 KT E OF THE TROUGH AND NE 20 KT W OF THE TROUGH TO 62W. ELSEWHERE... GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... HURCN WARNING N OF 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W...AMZ086 AND 082W GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.