000 AGXX40 KNHC 250525 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 125 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... BUOY 42040 S OF MOBILE BAY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF IS REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS TO 25 KT THIS MORNING...JUST OUTSIDE OF A RAINBAND. THE REMNANT LOW OF FAY IS CENTERED OVER S CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...CLOSE ENOUGH TO STILL IMPACT WINDS BETWEEN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA AND THE WATERS SOUTH OF MOBILE. SEAS HEIGHTS ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...MAYBE UP TO 5 FT...BUT WITH A CHOPPY SHORT PERIOD CHARACTER. FRESH WESTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED ON ASCAT DATA FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF. THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK HAS WINDS DIMINISHING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AS THE REMNANT OF FAY WEAKENS FURTHER AND MOVES NORTH. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS ALONG ROUGHLY 25-26N MAINTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. CARIBBEAN... MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A 1009 MB LOW PRES NEAR 14N67W. THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST THROUGH MON...THEN GRADUALLY GAIN LATITUDE AND SLOWLY DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NW. DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONG GLOBAL MODELS AS TO WHAT THIS SYSTEM WILL DO. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT IT WILL MOVE NW TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA THROUGH FRI...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW ON ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. REPORTS FROM BUOY 42059 IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOW PRESSURES LOWERING...AND WINDS AROUND 25 KT IN PERIODIC STRONG CONVECTION. WW3 MODEL INITIALIZATION IS CATCHING UP TO THE OBSERVATIONS AND ACCURATELY SHOWING SEAS AROUND 7 FT. GIVEN OBSERVED TRENDS AND IN SPITE OF MODEL INCONSISTENCIES TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE INTO THE MID WEEK. FORECAST REFLECTS MOVEMENT OF THE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ACCOMPANIED BY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT. ATLC WATERS S OF 31N AND W OF 55W... A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING FROM BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 58W. A 1012 MB LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE NEAR 23N58W. THE LOW WILL SPLIT FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE AND SHIFT W TO NW BEFORE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR 23N60W...BLOCKED BY THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST. FRESH SURFACE WINDS WILL FOLLOW ALONG ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW PRES. MEANWHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TROP ATLC WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND PUSH INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY. A BAND OF 15 TO 20 KT TRADES WILL PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK FROM NORTH OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH PRES AND LOW PRES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL BE THE RULE W OF 65W. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.