000 AGXX40 KNHC 230530 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...TROPICAL STORM FAY IS CENTERED OVER THE BIG BEND AREA JUST SOUTH OF SAINT MARKS FLORIDA IN THE FAR NE GULF OF MEXICO. FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST THROUGH MON...BRINGING WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THE WATERS NEAR PANAMA CITY THIS MORNING...THEN SKIRTING THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST AS THE STORM HEADS FOR MOBILE BAY BY EARLY SUN. WINDS WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER GULF WATERS SOUTH OF ALABAMA AND LOUISIANA THROUGH LATE SUN. BUOY 42306 JUST SOUTH OF STORM IS REPORTING SEAS AT 10 FT CURRENTLY. SEAS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN AREAS DOWNSTREAM...BUT THE FETCH REMAINS LIMITED AND SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH 12 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE FAR NE GULF STARTING MON AS FAY MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN...A 02Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS TO 20 KT S OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE JUST W OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 62W. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED THE USUAL 20 KT OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST AS WELL. OTHERWISE RELATIVELY LIGHT FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS MORNING OWING TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONCERNS IMPACT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 62W AS IT MOVES W THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBLE IMPACT OF A WEAK 1009 MB LOW NEAR 11N58W. THIS FEATURE REMAINS POORLY DEPICTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. IN FACT...THE LOW MAY BE INTERACTING WITH THE WAVE TO ITS WEST...BUT THIS IS NOT CLEAR RIGHT NOW. IT SAFE TO SAY THAT BOTH FEATURES WILL ALLOW THE THE FRESH TRADES OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH...THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE WAVE AND LOW MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY MIDWEEK. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 43W WILL REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY MIDWEEK. ATLANTIC WATERS...BUOY DATA AND AN EVENING ASCAT PASS SHOW FRESH SE WINDS OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST...THE REMAINING IMPACT OF FAY AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST. BUOY 41043 N OF PUERTO RICO IS SHOWING 15 KT...IN LINE THE 15 TO 20 KT PER THE ASCAT PASS. ASCAT ALSO SHOWS SURFACE TROUGH FROM 23N69W TO 27N66W. WINDS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE AROUND THE TROUGH...BUT IT IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS. MAIN MARINE ISSUE CONCERNS A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 62W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND A 1009 MB LOW JUST EAST OF TRINIDAD. SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY DATA SHOW A BAND OF WINDS TO 20 KT FROM JUST NORTH OF THE LOW THROUGH PUERTO RICO. AS THESE FEATURES MOVE WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS E OF THE ANTILLES. HIGH PRES BUILDING NEAR BERMUDA WILL ALLOW FRESH TRADES OVER ATLC WATERS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE TURKS/CAICOS SUN THROUGH TUE. WARNINGS...SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO...GMZ084-086 TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 28N E OF 88W. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.