000 AGXX40 KNHC 220529 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 128 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WATERS REMAINS THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM FAY...CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA. FAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEST ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND INTO THE BIG BEND AREA BY LATE FRI...BRINGING WINDS TO 35 KT OVER GULF WATERS FROM CEDAR KEY TO MOBILE BAY TODAY THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE FETCH LIMITED SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE SHAPE OF THE COASTLINE...BUT AT LEAST 10 FT CAN BE EXPECTED. FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW AND INLAND OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE SAT AND WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW PREVAILS OVER GULF WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLC... THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FAY OVER FLORIDA HAS DIMINISHED THE TYPICAL PRESSURE GRADIENT OFFERED BY HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS HAS ALLOWED FAIRLY WEAK FLOW ACROSS CARIBBEAN WATERS...WITH SHIP...BUOY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWING MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTE ARE UP TO 20 KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...IN THE WAKE OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 80W MOVING THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY TODAY AS THE WAVE APPROACHES CENTRAL AMERICA. ANOTHER WAVE EAST OF THE AREA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. FOR THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE WEEKEND IS A 1008 MB LOW PRES AREA WITH A FAIRLY WEAK SIGNATURE NEAR 12N50W. THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL MODELS AS TO WHETHER THIS FEATURE WILL DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS TOWARD THE ISLANDS. FORECAST REFLECTS A CONSENSUS SHOWING A FAIRLY WEAK LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN SAT INTO SUN. FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE REGION DOES NOT BUILD AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PREVENTING THE STRONGER WINDS FROM SPREADING APPRECIABLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. ONLY GRADUAL INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC WATERS... NUMEROUS SQUALLS AND STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM FAY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST INTO SAT AS THE STORM MOVES WEST. THIS WILL LEAVE GENERALLY MODERATE SE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA N OF THE ISLANDS...WITH EXCEPTION OF FRESH TRADES FROM THE LEEWARDS TO HISPANIOLA. FURTHER SOUTH...A TROPICAL WAVE IS NOTED THROUGH GUYANA JUST EAST OF BARBADOS. INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS WAVE AND HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ALLOWING WINDS UP TO 20 TO 25 KT...AS NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER AND BUOY DATA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOKING AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ATTENTION TURNS NEXT TO A 1008 MB LOW PRES AREA WITH A FAIRLY WEAK SIGNATURE NEAR 12N50W. THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL MODELS AS TO WHETHER THIS FEATURE WILL DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS TOWARD THE ISLANDS. FORECAST REFLECTS A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH THE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE LEEWARDS AND PUERTO RICO BY MON...WITH ASSOCIATED MODERATE TO FRESH MAINLY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. WARNINGS...SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC...AMZ080 TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 27N W OF 80W THROUGH THIS MORNING. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO...GMZ084-086 TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 28N E OF 87W. FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.