000 AGXX40 KNHC 200811 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 408 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ...TROPICAL STORM FAY MAY IMPACT THE MARINE AREAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK... ...GULF OF MEXICO AND SW N ATLC... TROPICAL STORM FAY IS NEAR 28.0N 80.6W NEAR SEBASTIAN/MELBOURNE IN FLORIDA MOVING NNE 4 KT. THE CURRENT TRACK TAKES FAY OVER THE ATLC WATERS AGAIN AS A STORM...FAY BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE OVER THE ATLC WATERS...AND THEN FAY RETURNS NW TOWARD THE NE FLORIDA COAST...AND EVENTUALLY IT WEAKENS GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA. WARNINGS ARE CONFINED TO THE ATLANTIC WITH PERIPHERAL EFFECTS OF FAY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE E GULF ZONE. ANY CHANGE IN TRACK MORE SHARPLY TO THE WEST SUCH AS THE SCENARIO PAINTED BY THE 12Z GFS AND THE FORECAST FOR THE E GULF ZONES MAY CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF...WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR MODERATE SE WINDS W OF 95W AHEAD OF A TROUGH IN EAST TEXAS. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY THU WITH SCATTERED TSTMS REMAINING IN THE W GULF. THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN HAS CHANGED. WE HAVE STARTED THE 20/06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS WITH A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 13N38W AND A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W/47W. WE DETERMINED THAT THE WAVE HAD MOVED WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF 19 AUG SHOWED ONLY A LOW CENTER AND THAT THE WAVE HAD MOVED WESTWARD BY ITSELF. SEPARATING THE LOW CENTER AND THE WAVE MEANS THAT WIND AND SEAS FORECASTS THAT WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WHOLE WAVE/LOW FEATURE TOGETHER NOW WILL CHANGE FROM THE EARLIER FORECASTS. THE LOW CENTER IS MOVING WNW 10 KT ONLY. I DO NOT FORECAST THE WAVE BY ITSELF TO GENERATE THE WINDS AND SEAS THAT WERE BEING EXPECTED IN EARLIER FORECASTS. I KEEP THE BIGGER WINDS AND SEAS EAST OF 50W BASED ON PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NOT BASED ON THE COMBINED TRPCL WAVE/LOW SCENARIO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FT ARE FORECAST FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS EXPECTED TO BLAST INTO THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW IN MY FORECAST WILL NOT BE BRINGING THE SAME WINDS AND SEAS. THE MUCH-ANTICIPATED 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW ALONG 13N38W IS MOVING WEST 10 KT ONLY. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC...AMZ080 TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 26N W OF 79W. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 28N W OF 79W WED AND THU. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER MT. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.