000 AGXX40 KNHC 191738 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ...TROPICAL STORM FAY MAY IMPACT THE MARINE AREAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK... ...GULF OF MEXICO AND SW N ATLC... BIG NEWS IS TROPICAL STORM FAY CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 81.3W OR ABOUT 30 NM E OF FT MYERS FLORIDA MOVING NNE 8 KT. CURRENT FORECAST TRACK BRINGS FAY OVER THE ATLANTIC WITHIN 24 HOURS THEN LOOPING BACK OVER N FLORIDA WITHIN 48 HOURS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AFFECTING THE SW N ATLC ZONE AT LEAST UNTIL THU. THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN FAY'S CURRENT WELL ORGANIZED STRUCTURE AND PAST HISTORY OF ERRATIC MOTION. FOR NOW WARNINGS ARE CONFINED TO THE ATLANTIC WITH PERIPHERAL EFFECTS OF FAY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE E GULF ZONE. HOWEVER ANY CHANGE IN TRACK MORE SHARPLY TO THE WEST SUCH AS THE SCENARIO PAINTED BY THE 12Z GFS AND THE FORECAST FOR THE E GULF ZONES COULD CHANGE MARKEDLY. ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF HIGH PRESS REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH LIGHT WINDS EXCEPT FOR MODERATE SE WINDS W OF 95W AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER E TEXAS. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY THU WITH SCATTERED TSTMS REMAINING OVER THE W GULF. AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SW N ATLC...STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AND ATTENDANT LOW CURRENTLY ALONG 37W IS FORECAST TO MOVE/IMPACT THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE ZONE AS EARLY AS FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUN WITH AN INCREASE IN E TO SE WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 11 FT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... LIGHT WIND THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 15 TO 20 KT TRADES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TROPICAL N ATLC. LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERALL SCENARIO UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS WILL PICK UP TO 20 KT IN THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN WED NIGHT AND SEAS TO 9 FT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AND ATTENDANT LOW PRES CURRENTLY ALONG 37W. WINDS FURTHER INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT THU AND FRI WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT AS WELL. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE SAT AS THE WAVE MOVES NW OF THE AREA INTO THE SW N ATLC ZONE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC...AMZ080 TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 26N W OF 79W. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 28N W OF 79W WED AND THU. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. FORECASTER COBB. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.