000 AGXX40 KNHC 180656 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 256 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO... CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST FOR T.S. FAY KEEPS IT FROM CUBA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FROM SOUTH TO NORTH... UNTIL 21/0000 UTC...OR WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE GFS MODEL KEEPS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN THE NORTH CENTRAL SECTION FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEA HEIGHTS FROM 3 TO 5 FT ARE WEST OF A LINE FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND A TROUGH/FRONT FORM IN COASTAL TEXAS FROM THE START OF THE PERIOD UNTIL MID-DAY ON THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN SECTION WITH THE LOW CENTER. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... WINDS AND SEAS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 80W WILL BE AFFECTED BY T.S. FAY UNTIL IT MOVES ANYWHERE NORTHWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA COMPLETELY. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS REACHING 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS REACHING 6 TO 7 FT NORTH OF THE COLOMBIA COAST BETWEEN 70W AND 75W STARTING ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND LASTING UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY EXPANDING TO COVER MORE OR LESS THE SAME AREA BETWEEN 70W AND 80W SOUTH OF 15N. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES COMPARATIVELY TIGHTER FROM TUESDAY UNTIL THURSDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH THE SAME AREA. THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE AREA WEST OF ABOUT 78W OR SO WILL BE AFFECTED BY T.S. FAY. THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ON LATE FRIDAY WILL SEE THE SAME TROPICAL WAVE THAT FIRST WILL PASS THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ON THURSDAY AROUND MID-DAY. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A SURFACE TROUGH WILL COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W STARTING AROUND MID-DAY ON MONDAY ENDING ON TUESDAY MORNING. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 7 FT. THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE AREA STARTING ON THURSDAY AROUND MID-DAY...AND IT EXITS THE AREA COMPLETELY FRIDAY EVENING. SEA HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 5 TO 7 FT WITHOUT THE WAVE...AND THEN RISE TO BE FROM 10 TO 15 FT NORTH OF 19N. WIND SPEEDS AROUND THE WAVE ALSO REACH 20 TO 25 KT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... TROPICAL STORM WARNING W OF 79W...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 20N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W...AMZ082. GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM WARNING E OF 83W...GMZ086. .FORECASTER MT. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.