000 AGXX40 KNHC 171812 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... TODAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK...WAVY FRONT LYING FROM N FL THROUGH S LA AND THEN SW THROUGH SE TX SETTLING SLOWLY SWD. WEAK SFC RIDGE IS ALSO NOTED NEAR 26N87.5W...WITH A RIDGE AXIS RUNNING FROM JUST N OF TPA SW THROUGH THE SW GOMEX. N OF THE RIDGE AXIS WINDS ARE GENERALLY S TO SW 10 KT OR LESS EXCEPT 10 TO 15 KT W OF 95W...EXCEPT LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS. S OF THE AXIS ...WINDS ARE BLOWING NE TO E 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE SE GULF EXCEPT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND SE TO S 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE SW WATERS...WITH SOME INTERMITTENT 20 KT WINDS. IN FACT...QSCAT JUST AFTER 12 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED AN AREA OF 15 TO 20 KT WINDS FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 91W AND 95W. WAVE HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FT TO THE N AND SE...EXCEPT 4 TO 7 FT NOW IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...WHILE 3 TO 5 FT SEAS ARE MOST COMMON OVER THE SW. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT SHOULD SAG SWD TO THE GULF COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE INTO THE NRN GULF WATERS BY MON MORNING...BECOMING DIFFUSE LATER IN THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A NARROW RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO CAMP OUT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH A RIDGE AXIS RUNNING FROM THE NE TO THE SW WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS OVER THE NRN WATERS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FT WITH 3 TO 5 FT SEAS IN THE SW...WHILE MARINE CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE ERN GULF ZONE. IN FACT...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT FROM THE NE OR E TONIGHT OVER THE SRN STRAITS OF FL...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 10 FT OVERNIGHT. BY MON MORNING...THE CENTER OF FAY IS FCST TO LIE ALONG THE N CENTRAL CUBAN COAST...WITH TROPICAL STORM OR NEAR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS GRADUALLY SPREADING NNW S OF 25N W OF 85W THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LATEST TPC WIND PROBABILITIES INDICATE A 40-60% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM OVER SRN HALF OF THE E GULF ZONE...E OF 83W. IN ADDITION ...NUMEROUS SQUALLS PRODUCING HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...ARE ALREADY OVERSPREADING THE STRAITS OF FL AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MARINE CONDITIONS INTO MON. ALTHOUGH FETCH-LIMITED ...SEAS ALONG THE NRN CUBAN COAST AND OVER THE SRN FL STRAITS SHOULD BUILD TO 8 TO 15 FT. THE OFFICIAL NHC FCST TRACK TRACKS FAY NNW TO N NEAR THE LOWER KEYS AND REACHING THE W CENTRAL FL COAST AS A HURRICANE LATE TUE MORNING OR AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THE ABOVE SCENARIO...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD THROUGH THE KEYS AND SW FL...WITH PRIMARY EFFECTS E OF 83W. CSWU WAVE PROGRAM INDICATES MAX SEAS BUILDING TO A MAX OF 22 FT EARLY MON AND 28 FT BY TUE. DURING THE DAY TUE...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE FL STRAITS AND KEYS BUT MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION. .WED THROUGH FRI...FAY IS FCST TO LIE INLAND OVER N CENTRAL FL WED MORNING AS A WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM. STRONG W TO NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 TO 10 FT SHOULD STILL COVER THE FAR NE WATERS OF THE ERN GULF ZONE AT THAT TIME BUT ABATE LATER IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH SW TO W 10 TO 15 KT WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING E TO SE IN THE STRAITS OF FL. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD RETURN TO NORMAL 1 TO 3 FT VALUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT 2 TO 4 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FL. THOUGH THE CURRENT FCST TRACK TAKES FAY INLAND OVER GA AND THEN THE CAROLINAS...SEVERAL FCST MODELS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WERE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF FAY LYING CLOSE TO OVER THE SE CONUS LATE THIS WEEK. FOR NOW...THE OFFSHORES FCST WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF FAY THU BUT WILL SHOW NE FLOW ALREADY OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA SPREADING NWD BY FRI. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TODAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM FAY IS LOCATED JUST S OF CAMAGUEY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IS TRACKING ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE CUBAN COAST. GIVEN THE CURRENT TROPICAL STORM WIND RADII...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ZONE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HIGHEST SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 8 TO 12 FT SE OF THE CENTER...WITH MAX SEAS OF 15 FT INDICATED PER THE CSWU WAVE PROGRAM. OTHERWISE...AN ELONGATED TROPICAL WAVE...WITH AN AXIS RUNNING FROM THE FAR NE WATERS NEAR 22N56W TO 13N58W...IS MOVING SLOWLY W AT 10 KT AND SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS IDENTITY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ALL THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE YESTERDAY HAVE SHIFTED WELL N OF THE AREA...LEAVING LIGHT NE WINDS AHEAD AND SE WINDS BEHIND IT ALONG WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FT. ELSEWHERE...WINDS ARE LIGHT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...WITH EVEN THE TYPICAL AREAS SEEING NO MORE THAN 15 KT OF WIND. SEAS SHOULD RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 FT OVER THE NW DIRECTLY IN THE WAKE OF FAY TO 2 TO 4 FT ALL OTHER AREAS. S TO SW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF FAY MON N OF 20N W OF 85W COULD STILL REACH 20 KT BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MON EVENING. WED THROUGH FRI... SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS ARE TAKING A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 30W INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THU...WITH THE GFS CONSISTENTLY STRONGEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MORE MODELS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY SHOW A MORE ROBUST FEATURE TRACKING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...THE MODEL CONSENSUS STILL DOES NOT REFLECT THIS. NHC WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE TIME BEING...WILL SHOW INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS THU OVER THE NE WATERS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC SPREADING WNW TO NW BY FRI. SW N ATLC... TODAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT...C-MAN STATIONS IN THE KEYS ARE INDICATING STEADY ENE 15 KT WINDS AT THIS HOUR..AND NE TO E 15 TO 20 KT WINDS ARE ASSUMED TO COVER THE REST OF THE STRAITS OF FL E OF 81W. SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO RANGE BETWEEN 4 AND 7 FT. SEVERAL BANDS WELL AHEAD OF FAY SHOULD CONTINUE SPREAD NW LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. LATEST NHC TRACK KEEPS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER CUBA THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING...WITH THE FIRST SIGNS OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE SW N ATLC ZONE W OF 78W LATER TONIGHT AND INTO MON MORNING. LATER MON...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN W OF 80W AND S OF 26N....WITH A LARGE AREA OF 8 TO 12 FT SEAS MOSTLY E OF THE CENTER WITH 6 TO 9 FT SEAS MOST LIKELY OFF THE SE FL COAST AND EXTREME WRN BAHAMAS. AS FAY MOVE N AND FIRST IMPACT THE KEYS AND THEN W CENTRAL FL COAST...STRONG SE TO S WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT SHOULD FOLLOW THE STORM NWD ALONG THE FL E COAST...WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT BETWEEN THE WRN BAHAMAS AND THE FL E COAST. WED THROUGH FRI...THE NHC FCST TAKES FAY ACROSS N CENTRAL FL WED MORNING AND TO THE GA/SC BORDER BY EARLY THU. ALONG THIS TRACK ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CLIP THE FAR NW WATERS IMMEDIATELY OFFSHORE THE NE FL COAST WED BEFORE LIFTING OUT WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOULD FAY TAKE A TRACK MORE RIGHT OF TRACK...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD FARTHER E OF THE NW WATERS. FUTURE MODEL SOLNS WILL BE CLOSELY EVALUATED TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE CURRENT FCST IS VIABLE. OTHERWISE...A WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE FAR NE TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD STRENGTHEN BY THU AND FRI...AS THE NRN END OF A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE FAR SE WATERS. THE GFS BRINGS A FULLY DEVELOPED TROPICAL CYCLONE E OF THE SE BAHAMAS AROUND THIS TIME...WITH SEVERAL OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING SOMETHING...ALBEIT NOT AS STRONG AS THE GFS. AT THIS TIME...WILL SHOW SOME INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY E OF 70W FRI BUT NOTHING CLOSE TO WHAT THE GFS HAS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 25N W OF 79W...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 20N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W...AMZ082. GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 25N E OF 83W...GMZ086. .FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.