000 AGXX40 KNHC 170610 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... TODAY THROUGH MON NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRES HAS SHIFTED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 27N84W WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 27N IN ADVANCE OF T.S. FAY. QSCAT DATA SHOW THAT WINDS MIGHT BE REACHING NEAR 20 KT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BUT THIS MAY BE TEMPORARY BEFORE THE MAIN WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH FAY MOVES OVER THE STRAITS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE SE GULF TODAY AND TONIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH TRPCL STORM FORCE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY SUNRISE MON. SINCE THESE WINDS WOULD BEGIN LATE TONIGHT...A TRPCL STORM WARNING WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THE E GULF ZONE. THE NHC FCST STRENGTHENS FAY TO A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING FLORIDA BUT THIS DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL TUE WHICH WOULD BE BEYOND THE WARNING PERIODS. HURRICANE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES ARE CURRENTLY 5-10% FOR MOST OF THE E GULF ZONE...SO WILL HAVE A SECOND HEADLINE SPECIFYING HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON NIGHT AND TUE FOR THE ENTIRE ZONE SINCE THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THIS WOULD OCCUR. TUE THROUGH THU...AS STATED ABOVE...FAY COULD STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE BY TUE OVER THE FAR ERN GULF BEFORE IT REACHES FLORIDA...WHICH THE SECOND HEADLINE WILL COVER. TRPCL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NE GULF TUE AND WED BUT THESE CONDITIONS WOULD BE COVERED WITHIN THE WARNING THAT WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT PACKAGE. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE MIDDLE/WRN GULF WITH SOME ENHANCED SELY FLOW OVER THE SW GULF. WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE ERN GULF FROM S TO N AS FAY LIFTS INLAND OVER THE SE U.S. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TODAY THROUGH MON NIGHT...T.S. FAY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA MOVING ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE CUBAN COAST. UNLESS THE WIND FIELD HAS EXPANDED OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...THE TRPCL STORM FORCE RADII ARE PROBABLY SHIFTING W OF 75W WHICH WILL ALLOW THE T.S. WARNING FOR THE E CARIBBEAN ZONE TO EXPIRE. LATEST NHC FORECAST WILL STILL NECESSITATE THE T.S. WARNING FOR THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N E OF 83W BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS IN THE NEXT FCST PACKAGE. TRPCL STORM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MON BEFORE FAY SHIFTS N OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. SEAS WILL BE FETCH-LIMITED BY CUBA AND JAMAICA...SO THE FCST WILL NOT CARRY SEAS AS HIGH AS WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPECTED BY A STORM OF FAY'S FCST STRENGTH. ELSEWHERE...A TRPCL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 55W BUT IS WEAKENING AS A TROUGH SPLITS OFF THE N END MOVING NW AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH 60W BY MON BECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE...AND NO MAJOR EFFECTS ON THE WIND FIELD ARE EXPECTED. TUE THROUGH THU...LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES SETTLE IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TUE AND WED AS FAY MOVES N OF THE AREA WITH THE ATLC RIDGE LIMITED TO E OF FLORIDA. ANOTHER TRPCL WAVE...CURRENTLY JUST W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...WILL APPROACH THE TRPCL N ATLC WATERS ON WED WITH ELY WINDS LIKELY INCREASING TO 20 KT OVER THE NE PART OF THE ZONE LATER THAT NIGHT. THE GFS ACTUALLY DEVELOPS THIS SYSTEM INTO A BONA FIDE TRPCL CYCLONE...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES. BY THU...WINDS COULD INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NE PART OF THE ZONE WITH SIGNIFICANT 8-12 FT ELY SWELLS PROPAGATING INTO THE AREA. SW N ATLC... TODAY THROUGH MON NIGHT...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA HAVE SHOWN THAT TRPCL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY NO LONGER OCCURRING OVER THE SW N ATLC ZONE...STAYING JUST S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND INLAND OVER CUBA. THE LATEST NHC FCST HAS TRPCL STORM FORCE WINDS RE-EMERGING OVER THE FAR SW WATERS LATER TODAY. THEREFORE THE T.S. WARNING WILL KEPT BUT RE-ADJUSTED TO BE W OF 78W TO INCLUDE CONDITIONS AS FAY MOVES NWD NEAR THE W COAST OF FLORIDA WITH T.S. WINDS EXTENDING E OFF THE FLORIDA ATLC COAST. TUE THROUGH THU...FAY WILL BE TRACKING NWD NEAR THE W COAST OF FLORIDA TUE AND WED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR T.S. WINDS TO MOVE UP THE E COAST OF FLORIDA. THE HEADLINE FOR T.S. CONDITIONS W OF 78W WILL COVER THIS POSSIBILITY AND WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS JUST IN CASE FAY MAKES A STRONGER EWD MOVEMENT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM S TO N OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND BY THU ALL TRPCL STORM CONDITIONS WILL EITHER HAVE DISSIPATED OR BE N OF THE AREA. GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS BUILD OVER THE REGION BY THU WITH A WEAK RIDGE SITUATED FROM 31N65W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... TROPICAL STORM WARNING W OF 78W...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 18N BETWEEN 75W AND 83W...AMZ082. GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM WARNING E OF 85W...GMZ086. .FORECASTER BERG. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.