000 AGXX40 KNHC 161828 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... TODAY THROUGH MON NIGHT...QSCAT DATA THIS MORNING SHOWED A SFC RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 26N84W STRETCHING WSW TO ALONG 25N IN THE W GULF. BUOY...SHIP...AND QSCAT GENERALLY INDICATE S TO SW FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT N OF THE RIDGE AXIS /EXCEPT SW TO W ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST/...WHILE E TO SE WINDS ARE BLOWING 10 TO 15 KT S OF THE RIDGE AXIS. LIKE YESTERDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION LINE THE NORTHERN GULF...N OF 28N...FROM THE UPPER TX COAST TO THE BIG BEND IN FL. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE AREAS...WAVE HEIGHTS ARE RUNNING FROM 2 FT OR LESS OVER THE NE TO 3 TO 5 FT W OF 90W...WITH THE HIGHEST HEIGHTS LIKELY BETWEEN 22N AND 26N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W. MODELS CALL FOR THE SFC RIDGE TO MIGRATE W BETWEEN NOW AND SUN EVENING AND THEN OPEN UP AS A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NW WATERS BY MON NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN TO THE GULF COAST AND SHOULD BECOME DIFFUSE BUT SHOULD STILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST SUN AND MON N OF ABOUT 28N OR 29N. MEANWHILE...THE LATEST NHC FCST TRACK BRINGS T.S. FAY TO THE S CENTRAL CUBAN COAST SUN EVENING AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS MON MORNING AND AFTERNOON....POSSIBLY AS A HURRICANE. ALONG THIS TRACK...NE TO E WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT SHOULD INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE STRAITS OF FL AND THEN TO 20 TO 25 KT SUN NIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 2 TO 4 FT SUN MORNING TO 6 TO 10 FT SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. SCATTERED TSTMS/SQUALLS SHOULD BECOME NUMEROUS BY SUN NIGHT OVER THE STRAITS OF FL AND WILL SPREAD NW MON. EXPECT MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD FURTHER DETERIORATE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SRN HALF OF THE E GULF MARINE ZONE DURING THE DAY MON...AS FAY APPROACHES FROM THE SE. TUE THROUGH THU...CURRENT NHC FCST TRACK BRINGS TROPICAL STORM AND POSSIBLY HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO MOST OF THE SRN HALF OF THE ERN GULF ZONE MON...WITH THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE SW OR W FLORIDA COAST BY EARLY TUE. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE 00/06Z GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE FCST TRACK...THOUGH THE 12Z GFS PRODUCED A SOLN VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST NHC FCST. EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN IS THE INTENSITY FCST ...GIVEN THAT THE CENTER OF FAY...NOW RE-EMERGING FROM HISPANIOLA...MAY SOON BECOME INVOLVED WITH THE CUBAN COAST. THAT BEING SAID...LATEST NHC WIND PROBABILITIES INDICATE A GREATER THAN 40% OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS RISING OUT OF CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS DURING THE DAY MON...WHICH REPRESENTS A NOTICEABLE INCREASE OVER THE LAST 12 TO 24 HRS. AT PRESENT...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REMAIN E OF THE THE MIDDLE GULF ZONE...BUT ANY TREND IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE TO THE LEFT COULD RESULT IN TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS THERE. PLEASE CONTINUE TO CONSULT LATEST NHC/TAFB FCSTS CONCERNING FAY. FINALLY...AFTER DOMINATING THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF ZONES WITH A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH WED...MODELS ARE HINTING THAT FAY MAY LINGER CLOSE TO OR INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS WED AND POSSIBLY THU THIS COMING WEEK. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THE NE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY FAY...WHILE A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO ASSERT ITSELF ALONG 25N-26N THROUGH THE NW GULF. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TODAY THROUGH MON NIGHT...OF PRIMARY IMPORTANCE IS TROPICAL STORM FAY LOCATED OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND TRACKING W TO WNW AT 10 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO EXTEND OUT TO AS MUCH AS 90 NM OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE...WITH MUCH WEAKER WINDS W OF THE CIRCULATION CTR. AN 1110 UTC QSCAT PASS INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF AT LEAST 20 TO 25 KT WINDS EXTENDING OUT 270 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND ABOUT 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE...WHICH REPRESENTS A BROADER WINDFIELD THAN DEPICTED IN ANY OF THE MODELS. NOAA WAVEWATCH III AND NAH RUNS FAVORED MAX SEAS UP TO 14 FT AND A SMALL AREA OF 12 FT SEAS CONFINED TO THE WATERS IMMEDIATELY N OF SE CUBA AND HAITI/SERN BAHAMAS...WHERE THE FETCH HAS BEEN WIDEST AND THE DURATION OF STRONG WINDS HAS BEEN LONGEST. OTHER THAN THE WIND AND WAVES...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS BANDS/SQUALLS CONTINUE TO AFFECT CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W AND WILL SPREAD NW ALONG THE WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. CURRENT NHC FCST HAS FAY GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AS IT TRACKS CLOSE TO THE SE AND S CENTRAL BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY MON...WITH THE CENTER EMERGING IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MON MORNING OR AFTERNOON. ALONG THIS TRACK...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD AFFECT A SMALL AREA STRETCHING FROM N OF JAMAICA TO S CENTRAL CUBA. EXPECT SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT AND TO LIKELY BUILD TO 8 TO 12 FT OVER THESE WATERS. APART FROM FAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS SHOULD COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN...WITH MODERATE SE TO S FLOW IN THE WAKE OF FAY. ELSEWHERE...WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE E TO SE 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT EXCEPT 4 TO 6 FT NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA. OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH A MID/UPR LEVEL CLOSED LOW TO THE NW HAS BEEN WEAKENING THE PAST 24 HRS...WITH ITS SFC SIGNATURE MUCH LESS DEFINED THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. STILL THOUGH...MORNING QSCAT DATA INDICATED NE TO E WINDS TO 20 KT GETTING READY TO ENTER THE FAR E CENTRAL AND NE WATERS WITH SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT. MODELS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS FEATURE INTO SUN...THOUGH ENHANCED WINDS AND SEAS...AS WELL AS CONVECTION COULD CLIP THE FAR NE WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. TUE THROUGH THU...AFTER FAY EXITS THE REGION MON...MARINE EFFECTS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH TUE. WITH NO OTHER IMPORTANT WEATHER FEATURES EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CARIBBEAN EARLY AND MID WEEK...EXPECT E TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT AND 3 TO 5 FT SEAS TO BECOME MORE NE TO E OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT. ONLY NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL SEAS BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER...AVERAGING 4 TO 7 FT. FARTHER E...A FEW GLOBAL MODELS ARE TAKING A REASONABLY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...NOW ALONG 27W...INTO THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC ZONE LATE WED AND THU THIS COMING WEEK. ONLY THE GFS AND UKMET KEEP THIS SYSTEM STRONG...WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS TEND TO KEEP IT WEAK. GIVEN THE LACK OF AGREEMENT...WILL TEND TO DOWNPLAY THE EFFECTS WED INTO THU AND MAKE THEM LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN WHAT THE GFS IS PREDICTING. SW N ATLC... TODAY THROUGH MON NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND N...BARELY INTO THE SW N ATLC ZONE N OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SE CUBA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH NO IN SITU REPORTS OVER THESE AREAS...WILL ASSUME THAT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE AT LEAST 6 TO 10 FT AND LIKELY 8 TO 12 FT...GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND PERSISTENCE OF NE TO E WINDS OVER THIS AREA. WITH FAY FCST TO TRACK VERY NEAR THE SRN CUBAN COAST AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN BETWEEN NOW AND SUN NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD NW OVER CUBA AND MAY CONTINUE TO GRAZE THE ATLC WATERS N OF THE CUBAN COAST. OF COURSE...HOW FAR THESE WINDS EXTEND AND HOW STRONG THEY ARE WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER FAY TRACKS OVER LAND OR FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS WHOLE TIME...STRONG NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT SHOULD SPREAD W ALONG WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND AFFECT WATERS OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS...STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND POSSIBLY THE SE FLORIDA COAST. BY SUN NIGHT...STRONGER NE TO E WINDS WILL REACH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 10 FT AND THEN 8 TO 12 FT BY MON MORNING. AS THE NHC FCST HAS FAY INTENSIFYING TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY MON MORNING...MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MON. NUMEROUS TSTMS AND SQUALLS ARE LIKELY...WITH HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 31N65W TO S CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUN AND THEN SHIFT E OF THE AREA AS FAY ENTERS THE PICTURE. THIS SHOULD KEEP A GENERAL E TO SE WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE REST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT 10 KT OR LESS NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS AND S TO SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS. TUE THROUGH THU...MODEL SPREAD IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH...INDICATING THAT THE TRACK OF FAY COULD BE AS FAR E AS E OF THE FLORIDA E COAST TO THE SE/E GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND NHC TRACK ARE CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHICH WOULD BRING A LARGE AREA OF 20 TO 30 KT EASTERLY FLOW NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS AND E COAST OF FLORIDA MON THROUGH TUE...SPREADING FROM S TO N. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD SIGNIFICANTLY ...LIKELY REACHING 8 TO 12 FT ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA AS FAY TRACK NWD. WITH FAY STILL FCST TO BE OVER CENTRAL GA THU AND WITH OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING THE STORM STILL NEAR OR OVER THE SE CONUS...FAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERT SOME INFLUENCE ON MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE NW WATERS. OUTSIDE OF FAY...EXPECT MOSTLY E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT... EXCEPT NE TO E WED AND THU OVER THE SE/E WATERS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 21N W OF 71W...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W...AMZ082 AND AMZ086. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.