000 AGXX40 KNHC 160629 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 229 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... TODAY THROUGH SUN NIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM S/CNTRL FLORIDA TO THE LOUISIANA COAST...A LITTLE FARTHER N THAN AT THIS POINT LAST NIGHT. WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT ALTHOUGH HAVE INCREASED TO 20 KT OVERNIGHT OVER THE SW GULF AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. HIGH PRES ALONG THE RIDGE OVER THE SE WATERS WILL DRIFT NW OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS...EVENTUALLY REACHING NEAR 26N90W BY SUN NIGHT. A FRONTAL BNDRY OVER THE SE U.S. WILL DRIFT S TO THE N GULF COAST SUN/SUN NIGHT BUT EVEN IF WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE N BEHIND THE BNDRY...SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. T.S. FAY WILL NOT REACH THE GULF WATERS IN THE SHORT TERM...YET NE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON SUN AND LIKELY TO 15-20 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS SUN NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. MON THROUGH WED...0300 UTC NHC ADVISORY HAS TRPCL STORM FORCE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS CUBA INTO THE SE GULF ON MON WITH FAY POTENTIALLY STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY MON EVENING. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FCST...GIVEN THAT WE DON'T YET KNOW HOW FAY WILL SURVIVE CROSSING THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA. NONETHELESS...TRPCL STORM AND POSSIBLY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE ERN GULF MON THROUGH WED. MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN TRENDING FARTHER WWD ON EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN...AND THERE IS CURRENTLY A 25-30% PROBABILITY THAT TRPCL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD SPREAD INTO THE NE MIDDLE GULF ZONE SO IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY NEED TO BE HEADLINED IN THE NEXT FCST PACKAGE. WILL OBVIOUSLY WAIT FOR THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE AND 0900 UTC NHC ADVISORY. ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE WRN GULF AS HIGH PRES IS FORCED WWD BY T.S. FAY. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TODAY THROUGH SUN NIGHT...T.S. FAY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH TRPCL STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTENDING A SHORT DISTANCE TO THE S OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. SINCE THE CENTER IS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...IT IS UNCERTAIN WHAT WILL SURVIVE OF THE CIRCULATION BUT THE LATEST NHC FCST BRINGS IT OVER THE GULF OF GONAVES LATER THIS MORNING THEN JUST S OF CUBA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. WARNING AREAS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE ERRORS IN THE TRACK/WIND RADII FCST. GFDL VERSION OF WW3 SEEMS REASONABLE REGARDING SEAS WITH FAY...SO WILL RELY ON THIS GUIDANCE FOR THE SEAS FCST. ELSEWHERE...A TRPCL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CNTRL ATLC ALONG 52W WITH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 15N52W. THIS WAVE WILL CROSS 55W BY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOW TRACKING NW AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING. THE STRONGEST WINDS BEHIND THE WAVE APPEAR TO LIFT NW AND REMAIN NE OF THE TRPCL N ATLC ZONE SO THE WAVE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO THE OFFSHORE FCST. MON THROUGH WED...FAY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NRN PART OF THE NW CARIBBEAN ZONE ON MON AS IT CROSSES CUBA BUT SOON THEREAFTER WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH. FRESH TRADES WILL TAKE HOLD OVER THE S/CNTRL CARIBBEAN BUT OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER LIGHT FLOW DUE TO A WEAKENED ATLC RIDGE. THE NEXT TRPCL WAVE COULD MOVE INTO THE TRPCL N ATLC WATERS ON WED WITH THE TRADES POTENTIALLY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT. SW N ATLC... TODAY THROUGH SUN NIGHT...TRPCL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND JUST OFF THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA WITH THE CENTER OF FAY LOCATED NEAR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER. THE LATEST NHC FCST TRACK BRINGS THE SYSTEM WWD THEN NW OFF THE S COAST OF CUBA...WHICH WOULD HAVE THE TRPCL STORM FORCE RADII JUST GRAZING THE FAR SW WATERS OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE. THESE WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED TO NEAR THE HISPANIOLA AND CUBA COASTS THROUGH SUN NIGHT BUT WITH TIMING UNCERTAINTIES COULD ACTUALLY SPREAD AS FAR N AS BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND THE FLORIDA KEYS BY SUNRISE MON. ELSEWHERE...THE SFC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N65W TO S/CNTRL FLORIDA AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT N TO 30N/31N BY SUN AS FAY MOVES BY TO THE S. A WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY MAY SNEAK INTO THE FAR NW WATERS LATER TODAY BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO THE MARINE FCST. MON THROUGH WED...THERE IS STILL GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE WITH POTENTIAL EFFECTS FROM W OF THE BAHAMAS UP THE FLORIDA E COAST. THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY KEEPS TRPCL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON MON...THEN FROM FLORIDA WWD TUE AND WED. HOWEVER...TRPCL STORM FORCE PROBABILITIES REMAIN GREATER THAN 30% S OF 27N W OF 77W SO THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR IMPACT OVER THESE AREAS. WILL MONITOR THE NEXT ADVISORY...BUT AM LEANING ON INCLUDING THIS AREA UNTIL THERE IS MORE CERTAINTY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FARTHER W. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 21N W OF 70W...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 83W...AMZ082 AND AMZ086. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER BERG. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.