000 AGXX40 KNHC 140600 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EDT THU AUG 14 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE PRODUCED 20-25 KT SW WINDS ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN WATERS EARLIER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THAT WAS LIKELY THE PEAK IN MAGNITUDE AS THE LATEST DATA INDICATES THAT WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THESE WATERS. SEA HEIGHTS PEAKED AT 9 FT OVER THE NE WATERS WITH SW/W SWELL AND HAVE NOW SUBSIDED TO 7-8 FT. WHILE THE GFS/WW3 MODEL MAY HAVE OVERDONE THIS EVENT A TAD...IT PERFORMED WELL FOR A FAIRLY UNUSUAL MID-AUGUST EVENT. NOW THAT THE LOW HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND WILL CONTINUE TO RACE AWAY FROM THE AREA...WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE N GULF. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF ENHANCEMENT LATER TODAY OVER THE NE WATERS IF ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE SE CONUS. OTHERWISE...A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE FL STRAITS TO THE NW GULF WILL SHIFT N THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONGEST WINDS DURING THIS PERIOD...15-20 KT...WILL BE THE SE TO S RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN WATERS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER MEXICO/S CENTRAL U.S...BUILDING SEAS TO 4-6 FT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE NEAR 17N60W...ANALYZED 1010 MB. PARTIAL QSCAT AND ASCAT PASSES SUGGEST 20-25 KT NE TO E WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM N AND NE OF THE LOW WITH WINDS LIGHT TO MODERATE ON THE S SIDE OF THE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A TRACK TO THE WNW-NW NEAR OR JUST N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT. CONSIDERING STEADY STATE OR SLOW STRENGTHENING...STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE CENTER. THIS STRUCTURE AND TRACK SHOULD KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS N OF THE CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE WATERS. IN FACT...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY WEAKEN THE TRADES LIMITING 15-20 KT CONDITIONS TO NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND OCCASIONALLY OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE NEXT STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...ALSO STRONG IN NATURE...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE SAT AND ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN ON MON. OF NOTE...MODELS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY SLOWING IN THE FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THE SECOND WAVE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT GIVEN ITS HISTORY TIMING APPEAR REASONABLE IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE. SW N ATLC... A QSCAT PASS SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z THU REVEALED NEAR GALE SW WINDS AT THE N BORDER OF THE ZONE (31N). THIS UNUSUAL EVENT FOR MID-AUGUST IS DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE SE CONUS. GIVEN THE LIMITED FETCH FOR THIS WIND REGIME...MAX SEAS ARE ANALYZED NEAR 10 FT AT THE N BORDER BUT SHARPLY INCREASE N OF THE ZONE IN GALE FORCE CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TODAY AS THE LOW RACES AWAY FROM THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING WHICH COULD CAUSE A SHORT BURST OF SW WINDS AGAIN TONIGHT AND FRI OVER THE NW WATERS. A LARGE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LOCATED SE OF THE ZONE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS SYSTEM ENTER THE SE CORNER OF THE ZONE FRI AND MOVE WNW TOWARD/INTO THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. GIVEN THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY...THE OFF/HSF PRODUCTS SHOW STEADY STATE INTENSITY ON THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK FOR NOW...BUT STAYED TUNED. THE NEXT STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SE CORNER ON MON. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.