000 AGXX40 KNHC 130546 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SW 15-20 KT WINDS ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 27N DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A SLOW MOVING HIGH PRES RIDGE FROM THE FL STRAITS TO THE NW GULF AND A NEARLY STALLED BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY IN THE LINE OF TSTMS BETWEEN SE LOUISIANA AND THE FL PANHANDLE. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE BUT WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 7 OR 8 FT OVER THE FAR NE WATERS LATER TODAY IN SW/W SWELL. THIS AREA OF FRESH WINDS IS EXPECTED TO SHRINK E EVENTUALLY RELAXING BY THU AS THE MAIN FRONTAL WAVE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES RAPIDLY NE. BY FRI AND OVER THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT N WITH STRONGEST WINDS...15-20 KT OUT OF THE E TO SE...EXPECTED OVER THE W GULF DUE TO DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER THE S CENTRAL PLAINS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... LATEST SURFACE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES A SMALL AREA OF 15-20 KT TRADES OVER THE S CENTRAL WATERS AND A LARGER E TO SE ZONE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN WATERS FROM 14N-18N. A TROPICAL WAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 16N54W HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO AND THE RECON MISSION ON TUE CONFIRMED THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS NOT FORMED YET. ANOTHER MISSION IS SCHEDULED FOR LATER TODAY...IF NEEDED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A WNW TO NW MOTION ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE TODAY THROUGH FRI AND THEN MOVING ACROSS THE S PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE. BASED ON THIS TRACK AND OVERALL STEADY STATE INTENSITY...20-25 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG AND TO THE N OF THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS N AND E OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND IN FACT WILL HELP LIGHTEN THE TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DOES FORM THESE CONDITIONS COULD DRASTICALLY CHANGE. THE NEXT TROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE THIS WEEKEND AND FOR NOW WE ARE FORECASTING SIMILAR WIND STRUCTURE AS THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. SW N ATLC... LIGHT WINDS EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE ZONE AT THE MOMENT BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE. THE FIRST CHANGE WILL OCCUR TODAY OVER THE N WATERS AS LOW PRES TRACKS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL CAUSE 20-25 KT SW WINDS ACROSS THE N WATERS THROUGH THU (GENERALLY N OF 29N) BUT COULD REACH GALE FORCE JUST N OF THE ZONE. THE ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THE SE WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC TRACKS NW. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOW/WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA FRI AND TRACKING TOWARD/INTO THE BAHAMAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM COULD BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE ZONE SO STAYED TUNED. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.