000 AGXX40 KNHC 120540 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 140 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... S TO SW WINDS ARE 15-20 KT W OF 93W DUE TO THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF WATERS. MAX SEAS OBSERVED ARE NEAR 6 FT OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK E AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES SPREADING SW 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND NE WATERS TODAY THROUGH WED...BUILDING SEAS TO 7-9 FT WITH S SWELL OVER THE FAR NE WATERS WED. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE WED NIGHT OVER THE E HALF BUT BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE W GULF FRI AND SAT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE S CENTRAL PLAINS. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TRADES ARE WEAKER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH 20 KT CONDITIONS CONFINED TO THE S CENTRAL AND SW WATERS. MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST IS TWO LOW PRESSURE AREAS LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC. THE FIRST...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS CENTERED NEAR 13N50W. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY ORGANIZING AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG AND N OF THE LOW CENTER WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO NEAR 15N55W LATE TUE AND MOVE NW ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE WED AND THU. THE NEXT LOW...ALSO POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH 55W BY THE WEEKEND. BASED ON THESE TRACKS...WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH RANGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SW N ATLC... PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BERMUDA-AZORES RIDGE AND LOW PRES TROUGHING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS MAINTAINING 15-20 KT SW WINDS N OF 29N E OF 73W. THESE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE TODAY/TUE NIGHT WITH FOCUS TURNING TOWARD THE NW WATERS AS A FRONTAL LOW STRENGTHENS AND APPROACHES THE CAROLINA COAST. SW 20-25 KT WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE N PORTION WED AND THU. BEYOND THAT...THE SE PORTION BECOMES THE AREA OF UNCERTAINTY AS AN ORGANIZING TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM COULD BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THAT TIME AND RECON IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW TODAY...IF NECESSARY. LIKE THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE...WILL KEEP MENTION OF 20-25 KT WINDS NEAR THE LOW CENTER FOR NOW. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.