000 AGXX40 KNHC 101815 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THE STNRY FRONT OVER THE NE GULF IS QUICKLY WASHING OUT WITH ONLY A CONVERGENCE BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE E GULF MOVING TOWARDS FLORIDA. THE SFC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO THE NW GULF AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STNRY THROUGH MON...THEN LIFT SLIGHTLY N TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. DVLPG LOW PRES OVER TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE TEXAS COAST TO 20 KT BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE NIGHT. CORRESPONDING SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 FT NEAR THE COAST. THE LOW SHIFTS E ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH ON TUE AND WILL ALSO INCREASE SW/W WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE FAR NRN GULF WATERS LIKELY INTO TUE NIGHT. WED THROUGH FRI...THE LOW CONTINUES E TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS ON WED WITH SOME LEFTOVER SW/W 20 KT WINDS COVERING THE FAR NE GULF WED. WINDS DIMINISH LATER THAT NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES E AND THE RIDGE SLOWLY DRIFTS N TO THE CNTRL GULF THROUGH FRI. SW N ATLC... TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...A WEAKENING STNRY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N73W TO N FLORIDA AND WILL HAVE DIMINISHED BY MON MORNING. A SWATH OF SW 15-20 KT WINDS EXTENDS E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL MON NIGHT WHEN THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES A BIT. OTHERWISE...THE SFC RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM 27N65W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH THE REST OF THE AREA DOMINATED BY LIGHTER WINDS. WED THROUGH FRI...SW WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE QUICKLY OVER THE FAR NW PORTION ON WED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THEN OFF THE COAST. GFS GUIDANCE IS EVEN A LITTLE BIT STRONGER WITH THE WINDS THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY...SHOWING 35-40 KT VECTORS LATE WED...AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS NOW SHOWING AN AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS N OF 29N W OF 70W. WILL MAINTAIN STATUS QUO IN THE FCST WITH 20-25 KT BUT MAY HAVE TO ENTERTAIN POSSIBILITY OF 30 KT GIVEN THE RECENT MODEL TRENDS. WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO 15-20 KT ON THU AND SPREAD E THEN FALL BELOW 20 KT THU NIGHT. A TRPCL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE SE WATERS ON THU WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT E OF THE AXIS AND SPREADING TO THE BAHAMAS BY LATE FRI. CARIBBEAN... TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...STRONG TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE S/CNTRL CARIBBEAN WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE. WINDS DIMINISH A BIT ON TUE NIGHT AS THE ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS N AND A TRPCL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE E. FRESH TRADES E OF THE ISLANDS ARE OCCURRING AS AN ELY SURGE HAS CROSSED THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MON NIGHT. A TRPCL WAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRES CURRENTLY NEAR 44W WILL BE NEAR 53W BY TUE AND CROSS W OF 55W TUE NIGHT...LIKELY CAUSING AN INCREASE TO THE TRADES. THE SYSTEM HAS A POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH OF COURSE WOULD CAUSE STRONGER WINDS IF IT HAPPENS. WED THROUGH FRI...THE TRPCL WAVE/LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TRPCL N ATLC WATERS ON WED THEN CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THU WITH ENHANCED WINDS OVER THE AREA. THIS WAVE THEN REACHES NEAR HISPANIOLA BY FRI. THEREAFTER...VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEVELOPING A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRES FROM A SYSTEM FARTHER E AND IN FACT THE GFS PRACTICALLY SHOWS A HURRICANE REACHING THE TRPCL N ATLC WATERS ON FRI. THE PATTERN OVER THE E ATLC IS RATHER COMPLEX AT THE MOMENT...AND THE MODELS MAY BE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME IN PINPOINTING WHERE THE SECOND AREA OF LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP (AND IF IT WILL DEVELOP). A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR NOW IS TO USE THE ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH A MORE SUBDUED AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 13N48W ON THU THEN POSSIBLY CROSSING 55W BY FRI NIGHT. STRONG WINDS AT LEAST IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE COULD BEGIN SPREADING OVER THE AREA E OF THE ISLANDS BY LATE FRI. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER BERG. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.