000 AGXX40 KNHC 091814 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 214 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...A RARE SUMMERTIME COLD FRONT HAS EASED ITS WAY SWD OVER THE NRN GULF WATERS EXTENDING FROM JUST N OF TAMPA FLORIDA TO SW LOUISIANA. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT NEAR THE BNDRY...AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE GULF FOR THAT MATTER...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE NE GULF HAVE BEEN PRODUCING PERIODS OF HIGHER WINDS. TWO BUOYS OWNED BY THE UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH FLORIDA...42013 AND 42022...HAVE RECENTLY REPORTED 39G51KT AND 27KT RESPECTIVELY AS ONE CLUSTER OF TSTMS MOVED BY TOWARDS THE FLORIDA COAST. STARTING TONIGHT...THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH THE SFC RIDGE STILL PLANTED FROM W CUBA TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST THROUGH SUN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO GENTLE OVER THE E/MIDDLE GULF NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS WITH MORE MODERATE SOUTHERLIES DVLPG OVER THE W GULF. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT SLIGHTLY FARTHER N FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO TEXAS SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT AND HELPS TO INCREASE THE GRADIENT OVER THE NW GULF. RETURN FLOW OVER THE WRN GULF WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT MAINLY AT NIGHT AS LOW PRES MOVES ACROSS TEXAS. TUE THROUGH THU...MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN FOR THE LONG-RANGE PERIODS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO TEXAS...AND A FRONTAL BNDRY NEARLY STNRY OVER THE SRN US. WINDS WILL LIKELY STILL INCREASE TO 20 KT OFF THE TEXAS COAST TUE NIGHT BUT THEN WILL BE LOWER THE NEXT 2 NIGHTS AS THE LOW OVER TEXAS MOVES E. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE MAY INCREASE WLY WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE FAR NE GULF ON WED AS IT PASSES FROM MISSISSIPPI TO GEORGIA. THEREFORE EXPECT SEAS TO POTENTIALLY BUILD TO 6 FT NEAR THE TLH COASTAL WATERS ON WED...IN LINE WITH THE WW3 ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE. SW N ATLC... TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...SAME FRONTAL BNDRY OVER THE NE GULF EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC WATERS FROM 31N75W TO N/CNTRL FLORIDA AND IS PRECEDED BY A SWATH OF 15-20 KT SW WINDS N OF 27N E TO 65W. HERE TOO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE PRODUCING OCCASIONALLY STRONGER WINDS...WITH NOAA BUOY 41047 RECENTLY REPORTING 1-MIN WINDS AS HIGH AS 33 KT. THE FRONT SINKS JUST A LITTLE FARTHER S TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED FRESH SWLYS TO ITS E LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH MON AND SPREADING E TO 60W. THE FRONT DISSIPATES BY MON YET LEAVES A WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NW WATERS. OTHERWISE...A SFC RIDGE FROM 26N65W TO CUBA WILL MOVE LITTLE AND CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN OF LIGHT WINDS S OF 26N. TUE THROUGH THU...THE SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO LIFT STEADILY NWD AND WILL BE ALONG 25N TUE...26N WED...AND 27N THU. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE AN AREA OF LOW PRES THAT WILL RIDE EWD ALONG A FRONTAL BNDRY OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND INCREASE SW/W WINDS OVER THE NRN WATERS WED AND THU. UNFORTUNATELY CONFIDENCE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM HAS NOT IMPROVED SINCE YESTERDAY SINCE THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS STILL SHOWS WINDS TO 30 KT WHILE THE VARIOUS MODEL CONSENSUS ONLY SHOW WINDS TO 20 KT. WILL LIKELY KEEP THE CURRENT COMPROMISE OF 20-25 KT UNTIL A MORE DEFINITE SIGNAL IS SEEN. CARIBBEAN... TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...QSCAT PASS THIS MORNING CONTINUED TO SHOW STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE S/CNTRL CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS AS HIGH AS 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL WAX AND WANE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL CAUSE THESE WINDS TO OCCASIONALLY SLACKEN THEN RESTRENGTHEN...AND A PATTERN LIKE THIS WILL NOT ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD MUCH HIGHER THAN ABOUT 9/10 FT OR SO. ELSEWHERE...A SWATH OF 15-20 KT TRADES ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC WILL SPREAD WWD INTO THE TRPCL N ATLC ZONE BY LATE SUN THEN TO THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NE CARIBBEAN BY MON NIGHT. SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 7 FT E OF THE ISLANDS IN A 7-8 SEC ELY SWELL. TUE THROUGH THU...THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL RELAX BY THE LONG-RANGE PERIODS AND WILL ALLOW THE TRADES TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY THU. ELSEWHERE...A TRPCL WAVE NEAR 39W IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 55W BY WED AND HIGH PRES IN ITS WAKE WILL STRENGTHEN THE TRADES TO 20 KT AFTER IT PASSES MAINLY OVER THE NE PART OF THE TRPCL N ATLC ZONE. THEREAFTER...A SECOND WAVE NEAR THE AFRICAN COAST IS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 45W BY THU AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL BE ALONG THE WAVE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF THIS SYSTEM HAS A CHANCE TO DEVELOP BUT REGARDLESS IT WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SPREAD STRONGER WINDS E OF THE ISLANDS BY THU NIGHT. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER BERG. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.