000 AGXX40 KNHC 090543 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 143 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS HAS PUSHED A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EXTREME N CENTRAL AND NE WATERS...QUITE UNUSUAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. NW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 15-20 KT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...BUT THESE ENHANCED WINDS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE BOUNDARY FIZZLES MORE OR LESS IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGHEST SEA REPORTS ARE 4 FT AT BUOY 42036 NEAR 29N85W IN LIMITED NW SWELL. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALLOWING SEAS TO BE QUITE LOW...MAINLY IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ALONG 25N ON SUN WITH SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE S CENTRAL PLAINS. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 15-20 KT ACROSS THE W WATERS THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY DRIFTS N...BUILDING SEAS TO 4-6 FT. SW WINDS MAY ALSO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE FAR N PORTION OF THE MIDDLE AND CENTRAL WATERS BY TUE/WED AS WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER/OFF THE SE STATES. SW N ATLC... A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXISTS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...GENERALLY N OF 24N...IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE NEAR 28N70W. WINDS ARE STRONGEST NEAR 20 KT OUT OF THE SW N OF 29N DUE TO THE TIGHTENED PRES PATTERN BETWEEN THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A SERIES OF LOWS OVER THE N ATLC. ELSEWHERE N OF 26N...S TO SW WINDS ARE GENERALLY 10-15 KT AND SIMILAR MAGNITUDE E TO SE WINDS ARE BLOWING S OF 26N. LATER TODAY...THE WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR N WATERS CAUSING A SHIFT IN WINDS BEHIND IT...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL STILL BE THE SW FLOW OVER THE N WATERS E OF THE FRONT. BY SUN AND MON...THE WEAK LOW AND FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ALLOWING RIDGING TO BUILD BACK W ALONG 26N. THE RIDGE WILL HOLD IN STRENGTH AND DRIFT N TUE. BY WED...GFS/ECMWF/UKMET SHOWS FAIRLY STRONG LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. WHILE THE AGREEMENT OF THE MODELS IS FAIRLY GOOD...WILL NOT GO AS STRONG AS THE MODELS (WHICH SHOW 25-30 KT) FOR NOW...DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY AT DAY 5 AND WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A FEW WEAK TROPICAL WAVES ARE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION...NONE OF WHICH ARE GENERATING SIGNIFICANT TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT. TRADES ARE STRONGEST...20-25 KT...OVER THE TYPICAL S CENTRAL PORTION AS NOTED IN LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA. THESE WINDS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MON AS THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINS STATIONARY...THEN SLACKEN A BIT AS THE HIGH WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.