000 AGXX40 KNHC 081756 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 156 PM EDT FRI AUG 8 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH IS CURRENTLY DIGGING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OF THE UNITED STATES...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SWD FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA TO LOUISIANA. AS A RESULT...THE SFC RIDGE HAS BEEN PUSHED SWD FROM CUBA TO THE NW GULF WITH WLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE E/MIDDLE GULF. THE FRONT ONLY MAKES A LITTLE MORE SWD PROGRESS TONIGHT AND REACHES THE N GULF COAST BY SAT...THEN BEGINS TO DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN. THE PATTERN WILL KEEP THE SFC RIDGE PUSHED WELL S BUT FAR ENOUGH E THAT SE/S FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE W GULF. WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SEAS WILL BE IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE THROUGHOUT. SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...HIGH PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SE GULF BY SUN NIGHT AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER WRN TEXAS. THIS WILL CAUSE THE RETURN FLOW OFF THE TEXAS COAST TO INCREASE TO 20 KT SUN NIGHT...DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON MON...THEN INCREASE AGAIN BOTH LATE MON AND LATE TUE AS THE NOCTURNAL JET DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES REMAINS OVER THE SE GULF THROUGH TUE WITH THE RIDGE AXIS FINALLY BEGINNING TO SLOWLY LIFT N ON WED. SW N ATLC... TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...A STRONG AUGUST COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES THROUGH THE OFFSHORE WATERS OFF THE CAROLINAS THEN INLAND ACROSS SRN GEORGIA WITH ENHANCED SWLY FLOW COVERING MUCH OF THE W ATLC WATERS N OF 28N. THE MORNING QSCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS TO 20 KT MAINLY OVER THE NW WATERS...BUT THIS AREA WILL EXPAND E AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SE. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 31N...TURNING THE POST-FRONTAL WINDS OUT OF THE NW/N OVER THE EXTREME NW WATERS BUT WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ANY FURTHER FROM THEIR CURRENT SPEEDS. THE SFC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 28N65W TO W CUBA AND WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SUN...KEEPING LIGHT SE/S FLOW ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT WITH LIGHT SW/W FLOW RE-DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA N OF 25N W OF 70W BY MON AND TUE. THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SLOWLY MIGRATE N ON WED...AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS HINTING THAT SWLY WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN RE-STRENGTHEN TO 20 KT OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTS. THIS APPEARS TO BE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR NOW...AND IS MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS WINDS TO 30 KT. CARIBBEAN... TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...REGULAR STRONG TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE S/CNTRL CARIBBEAN WITH A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS...AND QSCAT EVEN SHOWING UP TO 30 KT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A WEAK TRPCL WAVE IS CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES BUT IS DOING RELATIVELY LITTLE TO THE WIND FIELD EXCEPT SHIFTING WINDS A LITTLE MORE TO THE SE. WITH THE FRONTAL BNDRY DROPPING S ACROSS THE NE GULF AND SW ATLC...THE RIDGE WILL BE WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AND WILL ALLOW THE TRADES TO DIMINISH A LITTLE SAT THROUGH SUN. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER PORTIONS OF THE TRPCL N ATLC WATERS DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO A COMPENSATING STRENGTHENING OF THE CNTRL ATLC RIDGE. SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...A TRPCL WAVE APPROACHES THE TRPCL N ATLC WATERS ON SUN NIGHT WITH A LARGE AREA OF 20 KT WINDS DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF ITS ARRIVAL N OF 14N. SOME OF THIS WIND WILL SPREAD WWD ACROSS THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TUE BUT OVERALL THE AMBIENT PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE AREA...SO MUCH THAT IT MAY BE HARD TO SQUEEZE OUT 20 KT EVEN OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS WILL BE A BRIEF SLACKENING OF THE TRADES...HOWEVER...AS WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE TO 20 KT E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE WED IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TRPCL WAVE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER BERG. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.