000 AGXX40 KNHC 080528 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EDT FRI AUG 8 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF TONIGHT IS PROVIDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...EXCEPT FOR THE SW WATERS WHERE NE TO E 10-15 KT FLOW EXISTS. THIS LIGHT WIND REGIME IS ALLOWING SEAS TO BE VERY LOW WITH MOST OF THE BUOYS REPORTING 1 OR 2 FT. AN AMPLIFYING LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR NE AND N CENTRAL WATERS BY SAT MORNING...QUITE UNUSUAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THAT AREA AND DISSIPATE LATE SUN AND MON. HIGH PRES RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK ALONG 26N OR SO BY SUN AND THEN BASICALLY CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLY WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE W GULF AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE S CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR TSTM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE OVER THE N GULF WATERS TODAY AND EARLY SAT... ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...AND AGAIN OVER THE N GULF MON AND TUE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. ONE IS PUSHING INTO THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 80W AND MAY BE HELPING TO FUEL DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EXTREME SW CARIB WATERS AND COSTA RICA /NICARAGUA. THE OTHER IS LARGE IN WAVELENGTH BUT IS PRODUCING LITTLE CONVECTION AT THE MOMENT. THIS LARGE WAVE IS ACTUALLY LIGHTENING THE WINDS IN THE TROP N ATLC ZONE TO 10-15 KT BUT THEY SHOULD INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OUT OF THE E/SE FRI NIGHT AND THEN SHIFT NE TO E BY SUN AND CHANGE LITTLE IN MAGNITUDE THROUGH MID-WEEK. IN THE CARIBBEAN...E 20-25 KT WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MON AS THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND STRENGTHENS. BY TUE...THE RIDGE RETREATS E ALLOWING THE TRADES TO SLACKEN SOME. SW N ATLC... THE WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE N BRANCH OF A TROPICAL WAVE...HAS FIZZLED OVER THE CENTRAL/WRN BAHAMAS THIS EARLY MORNING. MAIN SYNOPTIC PATTERN NOW CONSISTS OF ATLC RIDGING EXTENDING W ALONG 26N AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. SW WINDS ARE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OFF THE NE FLA COAST AND 10-15 KT SE TO S WINDS ELSEWHERE. THIS WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH S WITH MODELS DIVERGING ON LOW PRESSURE FORMATION...WHICH IS MAINLY N OF THE ZONE. LEANING TOWARD THE SOLUTION OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE DUE TO SPURIOUS DEVELOPMENT IN GFS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO NEAR 31N78W TO N FLA SAT AND THEN BECOME DIFFUSE ALONG 31N73W TO N CENTRAL FLA SUN. SW 15-20 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE S HALF OF THE ZONE AS RIDGING HOLDS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.