000 AGXX40 KNHC 051813 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EDT TUE AUG 5 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO...T.S. EDOUARD LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 94.6W AT 10 AM CDT SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING INLAND OVER SE TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. SURFACE OBS ALONG THE COAST AS WELL AS BUOY REPORTS DIRECTLY OFFSHORE THE UPPER TX COAST STILL INDICATE SUSTAINED OR NEAR-SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER A NARROW AREA RUNNING FROM JUST NE OF GALVESTON TO AROUND THE SABINE RIVER. WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR INDICATING ONE LAST BAND APPROACHING THE COAST...THE POTENTIAL STILL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE REMAINS OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NW GULF ZONE WILL PROBABLY BE LOWERED LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT AS WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE FURTHER. IN TERMS OF SEAS...VERY FEW REPORTS ARE AVAILABLE...EXCEPT FOR AND 8 FT REPORT AT NOAA BUOY 42035 LOCATED ABOUT 20 NM SE OF GALVESTON. WE SUSPECT A NARROW ZONE OF 6 TO 10 FT SEAS WITH ISOLATED 12 FT SEAS STILL POSSIBLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DIRECTLY OFFSHORE THE UPPER TX COAST. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...LIGHT WINDS AND ARE CIRCULATING AROUND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF WATERS. REPORTS FROM BUOYS AND SHIPS ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 1 TO 3 FT EXCEPT OVER THE NW ZONE WHERE 3 TO 5 FT SEAS PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF THE REGION DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY EDOUARD. ATLANTIC...ATLC RIDGE ALONG 29N THROUGH WED...THEN SHIFT S TO ALONG 25-26N THU THROUGH SAT. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH THE SW N ATLC ZONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON A W TO WNW PATH THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE GFS INDICATING WHAT VORTICITY REMAINS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND PERHAPS THE FL STRAITS LATER WED. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASSES AND NUMEROUS SHIP REPORTS HAVE BEEN INDICATING A LARGE SWATH OF 20 KT TO SOMETIMES 25 KT WINDS E OF THE WAVE AXIS EXTENDING WELL E OF THE SW ATLC WATERS. ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM BECOME DIFFUSE ALMOST IMMEDIATELY...CURRENTLY SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL INDICATES A WEAK SFC CIRCULATION NEAR 23N68.5W NEAR AND S OF SCATTERED CONVECTION WHICH CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP. EXPECT A SWATH OF E TO SE 20 KT WINDS TO RUSH INTO THE SE AND E PART OF THE SW ATLC ZONE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS THE FEATURE WEAKENS WED. OTHERWISE...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A MODERATE TO STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE SE U.S. FRI...WITH THE FRONT SETTLING OFFSHORE THE SE U.S. COAST SAT...STALLING JUST N OF THE SW N ATLANTIC ZONE. TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 20 KT BY FRI EVENING THROUGH SAT....WITH THE WINDS SPREADING EWD SAT AND SUN AS THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE THE COAST AND INTO THE NW WATERS. CARIBBEAN... MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GENERALLY S OF 17N AND E 10-15 KT N OF 17N. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN CURRENTLY ALONG 68W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THEN INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH SAT. NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HOWEVER ELY WINDS INCREASE TO 25 KT E OF THE WAVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARRIBEAN SAT INTO SUN....FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE SURGE IN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM WARNING NW GULF ZONES GMZ080. .FORECASTER KOSIER. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.