000 AGXX40 KNHC 310546 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 146 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ...SW N ATLC... TODAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT...MID LVL RIDGE IS PLANTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAINLY ZONAL WLY FLOW LOCATED N OF THE AREA AS THE MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE HAS SHIFTED E TO 55W. SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 25N65W TO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. SW WINDS ARE PICKING UP TO 15 KT OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA AND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 KT BY TONIGHT AS A FRNTL BNDRY SINKS SWD ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES. ZONE OF HIGHEST WINDS SHIFTS E N OF 29N FRI/FRI NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST...BUT STAYS N OF 31N. HIGHEST SEAS BUILD TO 8 FT ALONG 31N BY FRI NIGHT. FARTHER S...N END OF A TRPCL WAVE MOVES INTO THE SE WATERS TONIGHT AND WILL INCREASE E WINDS TO 15-20 KT S OF 22N E OF 75W. SAT THROUGH MON...SW WINDS 15-20 KT CONTINUE OVER THE NRN WATERS ON SAT THEN DIMINISH LATER THAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE RIDGE AXIS FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT N TO 28N SUN AND MON WITH DIMINISHING WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE TRPCL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SRN WATERS DURING THE PERIOD BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. ...CARIBBEAN... TODAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT...A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS CONTINUES OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST BUT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TODAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AHEAD OF A TRPCL WAVE. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH A SWATH OF 15-20 KT WINDS EXTENDING FROM 15N-22N E OF THE MONA PASSAGE INTO THE NRN TRPCL N ATLC WATERS. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE W TODAY BUT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WITH ONLY A NARROW SWATH OF WINDS REACHING 20 KT OFF THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA ON FRI. SAT THROUGH MON...WINDS REMAIN 15-20 KT OVER THE S/CNTRL CARIBBEAN ON SAT THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE SAT INTO SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THE WAVE. THESE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH MON WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9-10 FT. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TRADES BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONG TRPCL WAVE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED SINCE LAST NIGHT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ATLC AND REACH NEAR 52W ON SUN THEN OVER THE TRPCL N ATLC WATERS NEAR 58W ON MON. RIGHT NOW MODEL GUIDANCE WEAKENS THE LOW ALONG THE WAVE BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. ...GULF OF MEXICO... TODAY THROUGH FRI NIGHT...SFC RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE NW GULF. NOCTURNAL WINDS OVER THE SW GULF HAVE INCREASED TO 20 KT...CONFIRMED BY NOAA BUOY 42055...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EACH NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WINDS BECOME MORE WLY OVER THE NE GULF ON FRI AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES S FROM THE CAROLINAS TO MISSISSIPPI. SAT THROUGH MON...HIGH PRES FORMS ALONG THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE E GULF ON SAT THEN MOVES TO THE NW GULF ON SUN...AS THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY N FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE TEXAS COAST. WITH THE SHIFT...WINDS WILL NOT REACH 20 KT OVER THE SW GULF AT NIGHT DUE TO A WEAKEN PRES GRADIENT. THE RIDGE MOVES TO 27N BY MON ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRES FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SE U.S. AND DROPPING S TO THE N/CNTRL GULF ON SUN THEN MOVING W ALONG THE COAST ON MON. THE ENSEMBLES SHOW HINTS OF THIS FEATURE BUT THERE IS NO STRONG AGREEMENT YET REGARDING ITS EFFECTS ON THE WEATHER AND WIND FIELD. BIGGEST IMPACT NOTED SO FAR WOULD BE A SLY SHIFT IN THE WINDS OVER THE NRN GULF ON MON. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER BERG. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.