000
AGXX40 KNHC 260512
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
115 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL WATERS IS 
PROVIDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE N HALF OF THE REGION 
WITH MAINLY 10-15 KT NE TO E WINDS OVER THE S HALF. SEAS HAVE 
SUBSIDED SUBSTANTIALLY...WITH MAX HEIGHTS AROUND 5-6 FT IN 
RESIDUAL SE SWELL OVER THE FAR W WATERS. LITTLE CHANGE IS 
EXPECTED THROUGH SUN AS WEAK HIGH PRES MEANDERS ACROSS THE 
REGION. THIS LIGHT WIND REGIME WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 
1-3 FT AREA-WIDE. BY MON THROUGH WED...HIGH PRES DISSIPATES 
LEAVING THE W PERIPHERY OF STRONGER ATLC RIDGING ALONG 25N/26N. 
THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE S TO SW 10-15 KT WINDS ACROSS THE N 
HALF AND SIMILAR MAGNITUDE OR LIGHTER S TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE S 
HALF. CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT TSTM ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND LOOKS TO 
BE LOW...EXCEPT FOR THE NE WATERS WHERE THE UPPER FLOW MAY BE 
DIFFLUENT.  

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC...
THE STRONGEST TRADEWINDS ARE IN THE TYPICAL S CENTRAL PORTION OF 
THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...20-25 KT AS NOTED IN A 23Z QSCAT PASS. 
WINDS ARE MAINLY IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE ELSEWHERE. SHORT-TERM 
FORECAST FROM WW3 MODEL COMPARES WELL WITH CURRENT BUOY 
OBS...SUGGESTING MAX SEAS NEAR 10 FT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. 
ONLY CONSIDERATIONS IN THE FORECAST IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE 
OF LARGE TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC. THE CLOSER ONE 
APPROACHING 45W IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT WITH MOST OF THE 
MOISTURE/ENERGY BEING CONSUMED BY THE N BRANCH...WHICH WILL 
RECURVE E OF THE ZONES. THIS SCENARIO IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 
MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND APPEARS TO BE ALREADY TAKING 
SHAPE. THE NEXT WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 22W WILL MOVE INTO THE 
TROPICAL N ATLC AND E CARIB WATERS BY TUE AND WED CAUSING AN 
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS AND POSSIBLY A SHIFT TO THE SE IN 
DIRECTION BEHIND THE AXIS.   

SW N ATLC...
THIS REGION LIES ON THE W PERIPHERY OF A CENTRAL ATLC 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PRODUCING LIGHT SE TO S WINDS N OF 26N AND 
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS S OF 26N. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED 
THROUGH SUN. BY MON THROUGH WED...THE RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO 
STRENGTHEN ALONG 27N OR SO. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BE LIGHT 
AND SLY ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS...MODERATE S TO SW N OF THE AXIS 
AND MODERATE E TO SE S OF THE AXIS. AN UPPER LOW SPINNING JUST E 
OF THE AREA IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MUCH OF 
THE ZONE. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED PRECIP OVER THE FAR NW 
WATERS DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE ERN SEABOARD OF THE U.S. 
 
WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE. 

.FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.