000 AGXX40 KNHC 211813 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... WITH TROPICAL STORM DOLLY NOW IN THE S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT NOTED OVER THE FAR SW PART OF THE AREA BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS PULLED W AWAY FROM THESE WATERS. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE THESE WATERS...AND SW WINDS OF 15 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS N OF 30N BETWEEN 73W-79W. THESE WINDS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH OVER THE SE U.S...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT ON MON TUE AFTERNOON OR NIGHT. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE ARE BEING OBSERVED. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT HIGH PRES WILL EXTEND FROM ABOUT 31N67W TO CENTRAL THROUGH FRI...MAINTAINING LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE MID-ATLC COAST AND SE U.S. WED THROUGH FRI KEEPING S-SW WINDS OF 10-15 KT OVER THE FAR NW PART THROUGH THAT PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WITH TROPICAL STORM DOLLY NOW W OF THE AREA OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 55 MILES NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO AS OF 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THE GRADIENT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA HAS WEAKENED ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. NOAA BUOY 42056 LOCATED NEAR 20N85W IS NOW REPORTING SE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH SEAS DOWN TO 5-7 FT. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT STILLS REMAINS RATHER STRONG TO THE S OF 19N AND E OF 84W WHERE NOAA BUOYS 42057 AND 42058 ARE BOTH REPORTING E WINDS OF 20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT. THE QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED NE-E WINDS OF 20-30 KT N OF 11N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W WITH THE HIGHEST OF THE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS MAY DIMINISH SOME LATE THU INTO SAT. SEAS WITHIN THIS AREA ARE IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE...AND MAY SUBSIDE TO 7-10 FT FRI AND SAT. WINDS ARE LIGHTEST OVER THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE SEA S OF ABOUT 13N AND W OF 80W TO NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA WHERE GRADIENT WILL BE THE WEAKEST SUPPORTING LIGHT NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT THROUGH SAT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE 5-10 KT VERY NEAR THE CENTRAL AMERICAN DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS E OF 70W ARE E-SE 15-20 KT S OF 16N WITH SEAS THERE IN THE 4-6 FT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WED AND THU...BUT INCREASE AGAIN TO 15-20 KT ON FRI AND SAT. WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE THE TYPICAL NE 20-25 KT THROUGH THU AND MAY DIMINISH SOME FRI. SEAS THERE WILL BE IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE THROUGH EARLY THU...THEN SUBSIDE TO 8-9 FT ON FRI. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 70W S OF 19N IS MOVING W NEAR 18 KT. IT WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE AREA REACHING THE WRN CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED...BUT WILL BRING LITTLE CHANGE TO WINDS AND SEAS THROUGHOUT. THE FORECAST FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC CONTINUES TO BE RATHER MORE STRAIT FORWARD WITH BUOY DATA NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 4-5 FT. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AT TIMES IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THIS ZONE THU AND FRI AS ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS SLIGHTLY S AS SUGGESTED BY THE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS CENTERED NEAR 22.1N 89.5W OR 55 MILES NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO AT 1500 UTC THIS MORNING. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER LARGE RAINBAND EXPANDING OUTWARD FROM DOLLY COVERING THE AREA FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 94W. IT CONSISTS OF SCATTERED TO STRONG SQUALLS RAPIDLY RACING NNW ACROSS THE S CENTRAL GULF AND E PORTION OF THE SW GULF...AND IS NOW MOVING INTO THE SE PORTION OF THE NW GULF. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM 21N TO 27N W OF 90W AND S OF 25N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. DOLLY HAS PICKED UP FORWARD SPEED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE TUE NIGHT NEAR 25.1N 95.2W AND MOVE NW TOWARDS NE MEXICO OR S TEXAS BY WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING. STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATED ADVISORY INFORMATION AS THIS PLUS THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF EXACT LANDFALL IS SUBJECT TO CHANGES. OTHER GULF FEATURE IS A WEAK RIDGE...THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF ATLC HIGH PRES...ROUGHLY ALONG 29N THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THU...THEN SHIFT S TO 28N FRI AND SAT. IT MAINTAIN KEEPING RATHER LIGHT WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR NE PART...AND THEN ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE SW GULF LATER ON THU THROUGH SAT. E-SE SWELLS OF 4-7 FT OVER THE NW GULF WILL SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT S OF 28N AND TO 2-3 FT N OF 28N ON SAT. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 25N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W AND ELSEWHERE N OF 22N W OF 90W...GMZ084 HURCN WARNING FROM 24N TO 28N W OF 90W...GMZ082 AND GMZ080 .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.