000 AGXX40 KNHC 201749 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 146 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... TROPICAL STORM DOLLY JUST FORMED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING ABOUT 230 MILES SE OF COZUMEL AND IS MOVING NW AT 15 KT TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40 KT GUSTS TO 50 KT. THE ONLY IMPACT ON THE ZONE WILL BE SEEN AS A CONTINUING TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS W OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE BOTH QUIKSCAT DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN AND ARE PRESENTLY SHOWING NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR THE NW TIP OF CUBA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH MON MORNING AS DOLLY PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTO THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO. QUIKSCAT DATA FROM JUST PASS 1100 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED S-SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR NRN WATERS N OF 30N BETWEEN 75W-79W. THESE WINDS ARE IN RESPONSE TO GRADIENT S OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL N OF THE AREA NEAR N. CAROLINA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT ON MON. OTHERWISE...GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT HIGH PRES WILL EXTEND ALONG 31N66W TO CENTRAL THROUGH WED AND FROM 31N66W TO NE FL THU AND FRI...MAINTAINING RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGHOUT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 83W HAS INTENSIFIED IN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY THIS MORNING...AND WAS CENTERED NEAR 18.4N 84.2W AT 1545 UTC WHICH IS ABOUT 230 NM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 40 KT GUSTS TO 50 KT. I HAVE ADDED TROPICAL STORM WARNING HEADLINE FOR NW GULF OVER THE AREA S OF 21N W OF 80W FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IT MAY POSSIBLY LAST INTO EARLY MON MORNING ALONG THE COAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...THE GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE WRN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AS NOTED IN THE NOAA OBSERVATIONS...AND FURTHER SEEN ON QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING. THIS DATA SHOWS 20-30 KT E-SE WINDS N OF 12N W OF ABOUT 68W TO 81W WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE JUST OUTSIDE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WINDS. SEA HEIGHTS ARE IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE OUTSIDE THE TROPICAL STORM 12 FT OR GREATER SEAS...SEA HEIGHTS ARE IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE TO THE N OF 15N AND W OF 78W. GIVEN THAT T.S. DOLLY JUST RECENTLY FORMED...WAVE GUIDANCE FROM THE MODELS DID PRETTY WELL IN INITIALIZING SEAS NEAR DOLLY WITH THE FNMOC BEING THE LOWEST ABOUT 2-3 FT UNDONE. MAX SEAS TO ABOUT 14 FT ARE IN THE NE AND E QUADRANTS NEAR THE CENTER. DOLLY IS FORECAST TO PULL AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN AS IT CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND MON MORNING AS LATEST NHC ADVISORY ISSUED AT 1545 HAS DOLLY INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MON MORNING. WILL INDICATE DIMINISHING TREND TO WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA DURING MON AND INTO MON NIGHT. WINDS ARE LIGHTEST OVER THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE SEA S OF 13N AND W OF 80W TO NEAR COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. WHERE GRADIENT WILL BE THE WEAKEST SUPPORTING LIGHT WINDS OF NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT THROUGH FRI. WINDS E OF 68W ARE E-SE 15-20 KT S OF 16N WITH SEAS THERE IN THE 4-6 FT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT WED AND THU...BUT INCREASE AGAIN TO 15-20 KT ON FRI. WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE THE TYPICAL NE 20-25 KT THROUGH THU AND MAY DIMINISH SOME FRI. SEAS THERE WILL BE IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE THROUGH EARLY THU...THEN SUBSIDE TO 8-9 FT ON FRI. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 63W S OF 19N IS MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. IT WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE AREA REACHING THE WRN CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED...BUT WILL BRING LITTLE CHANGE TO WINDS AND SEAS THROUGHOUT. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK PRESS PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IS PRESENTLY MAINTAINING LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA S OF 25N E OF 91W WHERE A PARTIAL QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT. THESE WINDS ARE DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT THERE RESULTING FROM INTERACTION BETWEEN T.S. DOLLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING RAINBAND CONSISTING OF SCATTERED TO STRONG SQUALLS NOW RACING NNW ACROSS NW CUBA INTO THE FAR SRN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE GULF. THIS MARKS THE BEGINNING OF WIND SPEEDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE MOVING INTO THAT PART OF THE GULF. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT REACHING TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THE SW PART OF THE MIDDLE GULF. A SPECIAL NHC ADVISORY ISSUED AT 1545 UTC HAS DOLLY TRACKING NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT AND MON MORNING...THEN CONTINUING ACROSS THE SW GULF WHILE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING THROUGH EARLY ON WED BEFORE CROSSING INTO THE FAR SW PART OF THE NW GULF (GMZ080) LATER ON WED THROUGH EARLY THU AT WHICH POINT IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER NE MEXICO OR FAR S TEXAS. WILL HIGHLIGHT T.S. WARNING FOR SRN WATERS OF MIDDLE GULF AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS FROM 21N-28N W OF 90W THROUGH EARLY THU. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT DOLLY WILL MAKE LANDFALL AS T.S. BUT STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATED ADVISORY INFORMATION AS THIS PLUS THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF EXACT LANDFALL IS SUBJECT TO CHANGES. OTHER GULF FEATURE IS A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE NRN GULF THAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH KEEPING RATHER LIGHT WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS OVER THE FAR NE PART...AND THEN ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF...EXCEPT PERHAPS THE SW GULF LATER ON THU INTO FRI. TROPICAL N ATLC... THE FORECAST FOR THIS CONTINUES TO BE RATHER MORE STRAIT FORWARD WITH QUIKSCAT BUOY DATA SHOWING A SWATH OF 15-20 KT NE-E WINDS ROUGHLY FROM 11N TO 15N. ELSEWHERE NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE NOTED WITH E-SE WINDS OF 5-10 KT N OF 20N. SEAS ARE ABOUT 4-6 FT FROM 11N TO 15N AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY BECOME 10-15 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUN THROUGH THU WITH SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 15N W OF 81W...AMZ082 GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 23N BETWEEN 85W AND 92W...GMZ084 AND GMZ082 .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.