000 AGXX40 KNHC 191744 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 140 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... TROPICAL DEPRESSION N OF THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA AREA NEAR 32.6N 78.5W OR ABOUT 90 MILES E OF CHARLESTON S CAROLINA IS MOVING NE OR 50 DEG AT 6 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. CURRENT ASSOCIATED WARNINGS REMAIN N OF THESE WATERS AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE ZONE AS THE DEPRESSION SLOWLY PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH SUN. A RAINBAND EXTENDING SW INTO THE AREA FROM 31N78W TO 30N79W HAS INCREASED THE WINDS N OF 28N BETWEEN 76W-79W TO S-SW 15-20 KT AS REPORTED BY A COUPLE OF RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS...AND BUOY 41010 NEAR 29N78.5W. THE HIGHEST SEAS SEEN WITH THOSE REPORTS IS 6 FT WITH SHIP "V2PH3" NEAR 30N76W. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT ON SUN. A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS ALONG 65W AT 27N...AND HAS FORMED ON A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS WELL TO THE NE OF THE AREA. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1000 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED 15-20 KT WINDS WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE LOW. IN ADDITION SHIP "ZCDJ7" NEAR 27N66W REPORTED N WINDS OF 20 KT AT 1200 UTC THIS MORNING WITH SEAS OF 7 FT. AS THE LOW MOVES E THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...IT WILL TAKE THESE CONDITIONS E OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE...MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN NIGHT OR EARLY MON S OF 23N OR PRIMARILY BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA AS THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN TROPICAL WAVES IN THE CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRES RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 33N70W. A COUPLE OF SHIPS. "KS004 AND "DILE" NEAR THE E TIP OF CUBA REPORTED E-SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT NEAR SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN FRINGE OF THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE. CARIBBEAN... A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W WITH ASSOCIATED 1009 MB LOW PRES ALONG THE AXIS IS NEAR 14N. THE WAVE AND LOW CONTINUES ON A GENERAL WNW TRACK. BOTH QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING AND OBSERVATIONAL REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 42058 NEAR 15N75W EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE E-SE WINDS OF 25-30 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM E OF THE WAVE AND N OF 13N PRIMARILY DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS TSTMS WITHIN THIS AREA. THIS BUOY ALSO SHOWS SEAS NOW MAXING OUT UP TO 12 FT. THE QUIKSCAT DATA ALSO REVEALED NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN ABOUT 180-240 NM W OF THE WAVE N OF 17N. NOAA BUOY 42057 NEAR 17N81.5W IS REPORTING NE WINDS CLOSE TO 20 KT. THESE SEA CONDITIONS ARE IN PRETTY CLOSE WITH BOTH THE CONVENTIONAL AND UKMET WAVE GUIDANCE. FNMOC WAVE GUIDANCE IS ABOUT 2 FT UNDONE TO THE E OF THE WAVE...BUT LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD TO THE W. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH 8-12 FT SEAS FOR E OF THE WAVE THIS AFTERNOON AND BUILD THEM SLIGHTLY TO 13 FT TONIGHT WITH WITH WINDS OF 25-30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS ARE ABOUT 3-5 FT W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...BUT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO 8 FT THROUGH SUN NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE SEA WHERE GRADIENT WILL BE THE WEAKEST SUPPORTING LIGHT WINDS OF NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT THROUGH WED. WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS HAVE INCREASED TO E 15-20 KT WITH SEAS MAXING OUT TO 10 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME ONCE THE WAVE EXITS THE CARIBBEAN LATE SUN NIGHT OR EARLY MON MORNING. WILL KEEP WORDING OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND E OF THE WAVE THROUGH SUN...AND STATE BECOMING SCATTERED FAR NW PART SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON. FOR REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN E-SE WINDS OF 20 KT WILL BE EVIDENT ELSEWHERE TO THE E OF THE WAVE THROUGH TUE THEN BE CONFINED TO S 18N W OF 65W WED AND THU...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS WILL RANGE 8-10 FT AND POSSIBLY UP TO 12 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE...ALTHOUGH APPEARING RATHER WEAK...IS CURRENTLY E OF THE AREA NEAR 53W. IT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN SUN...THEN MOVE W ACROSS THE AREA REACHING THE WRN CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. NOT MUCH INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK PRESS PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IS PRESENTLY MAINTAINING LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SRN WATERS S OF 25N E OF 88W AND S OF 21N W OF 90W WHERE A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWERS ELY WINDS OF 20 KT. THESE WINDS ARE DUE TO A TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT THERE RESULTING FROM INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND HIGHER PRES TO THE N. THESE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20-25 KT IN THE ERN GULF WATERS S OF 26N ON SUN AND TO SE-S 20-30 KT IN THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE SW GULF MON AND TUE WITH BUILDING SEAS POSSIBLY UP 10 OR 11 FT. THIS FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT...INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN SYSTEM. THE GENERAL TRACK ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS IS TO TAKE IT WNW ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN AND SUN NIGHT...AND THROUGH THE SW GULF MON AND TUE...AND THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE SW GULF WED AND INLAND LATE WED OR EARLY THU. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SIMILAR IN TRACK AND TIMING WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER S. WILL STICK WITH THE GENERAL PICTURE THESE TWO MODELS SHOW WITH WAVE/LOW TRACKING MORE ACROSS THE N CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN AND SUN NIGHT BEFORE ENTERING THE NW PORTION OF THE SW GULF LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON. STAY TUNED FOR ANY FUTURE MODIFICATIONS THAT MAT BE NECESSARY TO THIS FORECAST PENDING ANY NEW INFORMATION WITH REGARDS TO INTENSITY AND FUTURE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL N ATLC... THE FORECAST FOR THIS CONTINUES TO BE RATHER MORE STRAIT FORWARD WITH QUIKSCAT BUOY DATA SHOWING A SWATH OF 15-20 KT NE-E WINDS ROUGHLY FROM 11N TO 15N. ELSEWHERE NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE NOTED WITH E-SE WINDS OF 5-10 KT N OF 20N. SEAS ARE ABOUT 4-6 FT FROM 11N TO 15N AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY BECOME 10-15 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUN THROUGH THU WITH SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.