000 AGXX40 KNHC 181659 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... MAIN AREA OF INTEREST IS A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH GEORGIA NEAR 31N81W. THIS LOW HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CONVECTION INCREASING AND A BANDING FEATURE EVIDENT E OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER ON DOPPLER RADAR. IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW... THERFORE WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED. WHILE BUOY AND METAR OBS ARE ONLY REPORTING MAINLY 10-15 KT WINDS ALONG AND JUST OFF THE COAST...A QSCAT PASS AROUND 1030Z REVEALED SLY 20-25 KT WINDS TO THE E OF THE CENTER...N OF 28N BETWEEN THE LOW AND 77W. AS THIS LOW DRIFTS N OR NE...MUCH OF THE STRONGER WINDS WILL MOVE N OF 31N WITH CONDITIONS SUBSIDING BELOW 20 KT BY SUN IN THE AOR. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE S OF ABOUT 22N/23N AS THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN TROPICAL WAVES IN THE CARIBBEAN AND A HIGH PRES RIDGE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS. A TRAILING TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM BERTHA (CENTERED WELL NE OF THE AREA) EXTENDS FROM 26N65W TO 25N70W WITH MODERATE W TO NW WINDS TO ITS N AND LIGHT ELYS TO THE S. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN PLACE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. CARIBBEAN... A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W AND ASSOCIATED 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 14N IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR DEVELOPMENT. AN AIR FORCE RECON AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. SFC OBS AND QSCAT DATA REVEAL 20-30 KT E TO SE WINDS BETWEEN THE WAVE AND ABOUT 66W AND 20-25 KT NE WINDS BETWEEN THE WAVE AND 74W. BUOYS AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH THE WW3 MODEL SUGGESTING 8-12 FT SEAS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA E OF THE WAVE AND 6-9 FT IN THE OUTLINED ZONE W OF THE WAVE. HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 67W-73W. FOR NOW...BASICALLY EXTRAPOLATION THESE WEATHER CONDITIONS WNW ABOUT 15 KT IN THE OFF AND HSF PRODUCTS. HOWEVER...STAYED TUNED AS WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED. ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW INLAND OVER HONDURAS. E TO SE 20-25 KT WINDS AND 8-11 FT SEAS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING ON SAT AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W OF THE AREA. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE NOW NEAR 48W IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE E CARIB SAT NIGHT AND MOVE W ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUE. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IS PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HOWEVER...ELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE S WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SAT AS THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. BEYOND THAT...THE FORECAST GETS TRICKY. IT DEPENDS UPON THE DEVELOPMENT...INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE LOW IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS DEVELOP THE LOW AND TRACK IT ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN/MON AND INTO THE W GULF MON/TUE. IN THE OFF...TOOK A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOWING 20-30 KT SE WINDS TO THE E OF THE LOW AND 15-20 KT NE WINDS W OF THE LOW. HOWEVER...STAYED TUNED AS HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY. TROPICAL N ATLC... THE FORECAST FOR THIS ZONE IS BY FAR THE LEAST COMPLICATED WITH CURRENT DATA SHOWING A ZONE OF 15-20 KT NE TO E WINDS FROM 12N-17N AND 10-15 KT NE TO E WINDS BOTH TO THE N AND S OF THE OUTLINED AREA. OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT...WINDS MAY BECOME 10-15 KT AREA-WIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS RUNNING STEADY IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER CANGIALOSI. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.