000 AGXX40 KNHC 170617 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... TWO WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVES CONTINUE TO BE THE BIG WEATHER MAKERS IN THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. ONE IS IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W CURRENTLY. AN EVENING QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED GOOD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM PANAMA TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. REPORTS FROM BUOY 42058 MATCH THE QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING GENERALLY 20 KT FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN. POCKETS OF CONVECTION ARE NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...ENHANCED BY FAVORABLE SOUTHERLY OUTFLOW ALOFT ON THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE IT MOVES INTO THE NICARAGUA COAST. THE SECOND WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES CURRENTLY...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED 1009 MB LOW NEAR 12N60W. SCATTEROMETER PASSES OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS SHOW FRESH EAST WINDS TO THE NORTH OF LOW...GENERALLY N OF 15N W OF 55W INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. CONVECTION IS PERSISTING AHEAD OF THE WAVE/LOW COMPLEX...DESPITE UNFAVORABLE DRY NORTHERLY SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TODAY OR FRI AS THE FEATURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH 80W BY EARLY SAT THEN MOVE INTO NICARAGUA BY LATE SAT. MEANWHILE A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY SAT NIGHT. SW N ATLC... A 1021 MB HIGH PRES AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 27N60W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 27N. FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ON A 00Z QUIKSCAT PASS OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST...BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND 1015 MB LOW PRES OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO SHOWED FRESH E TO SE WINDS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH EASTERN CUBA ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE. 20 KT WESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH...GENERALLY N OF 30N AND E OF 63W. THIS IS AN AREA BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL. THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND HAS THE WINDS S OF BERTHA TO DIMINISH BY LATE TONIGHT. GFDL DRIVEN WAVEWATCH SHOWS SWELL OF 8 TO 12 FT MOVING INTO THE AREA SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA TODAY THROUGH LATE FRI. THE WINDS OFF FLORIDA TO DIMINISH LATER ON FRI AS THE LOW PRES LIFTS NORTH. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE INTO MON. GULF OF MEXICO... LIGHT PRES PATTERN CONTINUES WITH 1018 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE NW GULF...AND 1015 MB LOW PRES OVER FLORIDA. NOT ENOUGH OF A PRES GRADIENT TO PRODUCE ANYTHING BUT LITE TO MODERATE WINDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. THE LOW WILL LIFT INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...LEAVING LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF. A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY STARTING TONIGHT...AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.