000 AGXX40 KNHC 151739 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 141 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLANTIC... TROPICAL STORM BERTHA LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 62.7W AT 1500 UTC... WELL N OF THE FORECAST AREA IS MOVING FURTHER AWAY FOR NOW. BERTHA WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR NEAR 36N46W AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A SHARP RIGHT TURN BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW BERTHA TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST WED INTO THU. FORECAST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF THE AREA...HOWEVER ANY DEVIATION IN THE STORM TRACK TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BACK OVER THE FAR N PORTION OF THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST WATERS AREA. AS BERTHA MAKES THE MOVE TO SOUTHEAST...IT WILL CUTOFF A RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING HIGH PRES TO BECOME ENTRENCHED OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS. INTERACTION BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND THE TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH SW FLOW N OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH EARLY WED. AS HIGH PRESS BUILDS WWD WINDS DECREASE OVER THE AREA. FRESH E WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO TURKS/CAICOS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH...AND A TROPICAL WAVE MIGRATING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE...A 1012 MB LOW PRES AREA NEAR 13N48W ALONG ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO SPIN WESTWARD TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN. THE SYSTEM HAS NOT SHOWN ANY SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY. HOWEVER...INCREASING E WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS W OF 55W WED INTO THU. CARIBBEAN... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69W/70W IS MOVING WEST THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT BETWEEN BUOYS 42058 AND 42059 AND AREA OF EXPANDING CONVECTION. QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATED FRESHENING E WINDS OF 20-25 KT BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD WWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND WED...AND OVER THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE W CARIBBEAN LATE THU THROUGH SAT. LATEST NWW3 DATA BACKS OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE EXPECTED SEAS WITH 8-11 FT AT MOST EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE OVER THE WATERS. IN OTHER AREAS... QUIKSCAT INDICATED A HINT OF 20 KT WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE EARLY WED. GULF OF MEXICO... LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE IN PLACE OVER THE GULF WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK HIGH PRESS. NW FLOW AROUND THE W SIDE OF A SFC LOW OVER N FLORIDA COVERS THE GULF E OF 88W. THIS WEAK LOW WILL MEANDER OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH EARLY FRI THEN MOVE INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRI. WINDS WILL INCREASE SAT AND SUN OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A TROPICAL WAVE MIGRATES WEST THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER COBB. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.