000 AGXX40 KNHC 120545 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUN NIGHT)...HURRICANE BERTHA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NWD ABOUT 200 NM SE OF BERMUDA...AND STILL JUST E OF ZONE AMZ080. A 2228 UTC QSCAT PASS SHOWED THAT 20-25 KT NLY WINDS ARE CLIPPING THE AREA N OF 27N E OF 66W WITH THE FCST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEPING THE TS FORCE WINDS ONLY AS FAR W AS 65W. AT THIS POINT NO WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED BUT ANY SLIGHT WWD DEVIATION WOULD CHANGE THAT. THE GFDL APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WIND FIELD AND SHOWS THAT WINDS TO 30 KT COULD BLEED W OF 65W N OF 29N LATE TODAY THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON SUN. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION 8-12 FT SEAS OVER THE FAR NE PART AS PER THE NAH WW3 WITH SUBSIDING OCCURRING ON SUN. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE WAVE MODELS ARE PERFORMING ALL THAT WELL WITH THE EASTERLY SWELLS COMING FROM BERTHA OVER THE REST OF THE ZONE. NOAA BUOY 41047 NEAR 27.5N 71.5W IS CURRENTLY REPORTING 7 FT COMBINED SEAS WHEREAS THE WW3 AND NAH WW3 ONLY HAVE 5 FT AT THAT LOCATION AND THE FNMOC HAS 6 FT. WILL HAVE TO GO 1-2 FT ABOVE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IN THE FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWLY DECAYING SWELLS. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH BROAD LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE SE U.S. THIS WILL PRODUCE SW WINDS 10-15 KT OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST THROUGH SUN NIGHT. LONG-TERM (MON THROUGH WED)...BERTHA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NE AWAY FROM THE REGION IN THE DAY 3-5 PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES STILL ALONG 25N AND BROAD SW WINDS TO 15 KT OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA. THE N END OF A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SRN WATERS BEGINNING LATE MON AND WILL INCREASE WINDS S OF 24N TO 15-20 KT TUE THEN LIKELY 20-25 KT ON WED. THE RIDGE WILL LIFT N TO 28N/29N ON WED AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES BY WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED N OF 27N. **************************************************************** CARIBBEAN... SHORT-TERM...A STRONG PRES GRADIENT IS IN PLACE OVER THE S/CNTRL AND W/CNTRL CARIBBEAN WITH E WINDS 20-25 KT AND PROBABLY AS HIGH AS 30 KT OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS PATTERN THROUGH SUN NIGHT EXCEPT A SLIGHT WWD EXPANSION OF 20 KT WINDS INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AS THE CULPRIT TRPCL WAVE MOVES W. ELSEWHERE...ANOTHER TRPCL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 46W WILL APPROACH THE TRPCL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT WITH NE/E WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT THEN TO 20-25 KT SUN NIGHT AS THE WAVE TRAVERSES THE ZONE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7-10 FT FROM 13N TO 20N E OF THE ISLANDS SUN NIGHT. LONG-TERM...THE TRPCL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ON MON THEN MOVE ACROSS THE E/CNTRL CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED. A BROAD SWATH OF WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AT LEAST 20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE TRPCL N ATLC WATERS AS WELL AS THE NRN 2/3 OF THE E AND CNTRL CARIBBEAN. **************************************************************** GULF OF MEXICO... SHORT-TERM...HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...HIGHEST OVER THE SW GULF WHERE BUOY 42055 IS REPORTING 15 KT. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE S AND W OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND WILL ALLOW WLY WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NE GULF AS A WEAK FRONT SETTLES OVER N FLORIDA. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 20 KT ALTHOUGH COULD REACH 15 KT IN THE WLY FLOW OFF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LONG-TERM...FEW CHANGES ARE EXPECTED MON THROUGH WED AS BROAD LOW PRES REMAINS OVER THE SE U.S. AND THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW GULF TO W CUBA. THE RIDGE WILL LIFT SLOWLY N ON TUE THEN EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO LOUISIANA ON WED...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE WLYS TO THE EXTREME NE WATERS AS E/SE WINDS OVERTAKE MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER BERG. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.