000 AGXX40 KNHC 110550 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 150 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT)...HURRICANE BERTHA IS LOCATED ABOUT 325 NM SSE OF BERMUDA AND IS MOVING SLOWLY NW TOWARDS THE NRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA...BUT E OF SW N ATLC OFFSHORE ZONE. LATEST NHC FORECAST SHOWS BERTHA MAKING A SHARP NEWD TURN IN 24-48 HRS WITH THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE RADII STAYING JUST E OF 65W AND FOR THE MOMENT NOT REQUIRING A WARNING FOR THE ZONE. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE WIGGLE ROOM AVAILABLE AND WITH THE PROBABILITY OF TS WINDS BRUSHING W OF 65W JUST OVER 50%...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SHORT-FUSED WARNING IF THE HURRICANE DOES NOT MAKE THE TURN. NEEDLESS TO SAY...WINDS OVER THE EXTREME NE PART WILL STILL REACH BETWEEN 20-30 KT MAINLY FRI NIGHT AND SAT THEN DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AS BERTHA MOVES SLOWLY N/NE. IN ADDITION...8-10 FT EASTERLY SWELLS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE AREA N OF 26N E OF 68W AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT...POSSIBLY BUILDING TO NEAR 12 FT...THEN SUBSIDE LESS THAN 8 FT SAT NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRES WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND A 5-7 FT EASTERLY SWELL HEADING TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS TODAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY WILL DRIFT INTO THE FAR NW WATERS SAT AND SAT NIGHT WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRE-FRONTAL SW WINDS. LONG-TERM (SUN THROUGH TUE)...WINDS OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA WILL DIMINISH LESS THAN 20 KT ON SUN AS BERTHA MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL AND THE FRONTAL BNDRY OFF NE FLORIDA MOVES BACK INLAND BY LATE SUN. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE MON AND TUE WITH E/SE WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 8-11 FT OVER THE SE PART. **************************************************************** CARIBBEAN... SHORT-TERM...STRONG PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE IS PRODUCING 20-25 KT EASTERLY TRADES OVER THE S/CNTRL CARIBBEAN AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH 30 KT DEVELOPING OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST BY TONIGHT. THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS CURRENTLY LIES E OF 80W BUT WILL EXPAND WWD WITH 20 KT DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY SUN NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CNTRL ATLC WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BY SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS LIKELY INCREASING TO 20 KT OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE ZONE. LONG-TERM...THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE ZONE ON SUN AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BY SUN NIGHT IN A SWATH BETWEEN 14N AND 21N MOVES W TOWARDS THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ON MON AS THE STRONGEST WINDS MOVE ACROSS THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS THEN ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN TO HISPANIOLA ON TUE. THE STRONG WINDS OVER THE W/CNTRL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE SUN AND MON THEN DIMINISH ON TUE AS THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WEAKENS THE PRES GRADIENT. **************************************************************** GULF OF MEXICO... SHORT-TERM...RIDGE AXIS IS PARKED ALONG 28N AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL THEREFORE BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE N OF 25N AND E/SE 10-15 KT S OF 25N. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S INTO N FLORIDA SAT AND SAT NIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT W/NW WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE NE GULF WATERS...AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM N FLORIDA SW PAST TAMPA BAY INTO THE E/CNTRL GULF. LONG-TERM...WITH THE FRONT OVER N FLORIDA ON SUN THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SUPPRESSED FROM HIGH PRES OVER THE NW GULF TO THE W TIP OF CUBA...AND A SFC TROUGH WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS. THE FRONT MAY LIFT BACK N ON MON AND TUE WITH BROAD LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER SRN GEORGIA...AND THAT WILL KEEP WINDS WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT OVER THE NE WATERS. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN LOCKED UP OVER THE NW GULF ALTHOUGH THE ATLC RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO REBUILD TO THE W ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS ON TUE. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER BERG. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.