000 AGXX40 KNHC 100823 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AN ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS WEST ALONG 30N INTO NE TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 29N84W. NWP MODELS AND EVEN THE NAM REGIONAL FORECAST THE RIDGE SLIDING S TO NEAR 28N FRI AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH SUN...THEN MOVE FURTHER S TO ALONG 25N BY MON. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0100 UTC LAST NIGHT COVERED MUCH OF THE WRN GULF. IT SHOWED LIGHT SE WINDS...EXCEPT FOR THE SW PORTION OF THE S OF 23N WHERE E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS ARE STILL INDICATED. BUOY 42055 LOCATED AT 22N94W HAS BEEN REPORTING E-SE 20 KT WINDS FOR THE PAST 18 HOURS OR SO. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER MEXICO WEAKENS SOME. SEA HEIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ARE RANGING FROM 1-3 FT... EXCEPT 4-5 FT IN THE WRN GULF S OF 23N AND 3-4 FT FROM 23N TO 26N. SEAS IN THE SW GULF ARE FORECAST TO HOLD UP THROUGH FRI ...THEN SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON UNDER WEAK HIGH PRES THAT REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THROUGH THEN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 2324 UTC LAST NIGHT AND A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 0218 UTC LAST NIGHT AS WELL REVEALED A SOLID SWATH OF NE 20 KT WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SEA S OF ABOUT 15N BETWEEN 71W-77W. BUOY 42058 LOCATED 15N75W IS CURRENTLY REPORTING E WINDS OF 15 KT. IT RECENTLY REPORTED E WINDS OF 20 KT. THIS TREND INDICATES A SHORT DROP OFF OF WIND SPEEDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. WILL KEEP 15-20 KT WINDS IN SW PORTION FOR TODAY...WITH HIGHEST SPEEDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS THEN INCREASE THEM TO 20-25 KT AS CURRENTLY IN FORECAST BEGINNING THU NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUN MORNING...THEN DECREASE THEM TO 15 TO 20 KT LATER SUN INTO MON FOLLOWING CLOSE TO GFS WIND GUIDANCE. WILL KEEP MENTION OF NE WINDS TO 30 KT ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY SUN. THE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED THAT SIMILAR WINDS OF 20-25 KT WHICH EARLIER EXISTED OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE E CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15 KT...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWFHR MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 20-25 KT IN THAT AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MON AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE WRN AND S CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE SEA. MAXIMUM SEAS WILL BE IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE OVER THE SW SECTION WITH WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWING A MAX OF 14 FT BY SAT...THEN SUBSIDING TO 10 FT MON. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 72W-75W BUILD UP TO 12 FT FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...THEN LOWER TO 10 FT SUN AND TO 8 FT BY MON. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE GENERALLY N-E 15 KT...EXCEPT FOR THE NW PORTION OF THE SEA WHERE WINDS ARE E-SE 10-15 KT. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE. NE SWELLS OF 4-7 FT THROUGH NE ATLC PASSAGES DUE TO HURRICANE BERTHA OVER THE ATLC WELL NE OF THE AREA ABOUT 590 NM SE OF BERMUDA WILL COME DOWN TO 5 FT BY FRI MORNING. TROPICAL ATLC... QUIKSCAT DATA FROM JUST PAST 2142 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED DEPARTING SE-S WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE WAKE OF BERTHA GRAZING THE FAR NRN PORTION OF THE AREA TO THE E OF 59W. A 0040 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED WEAKER SE-S WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT N OF 21N E OF 57W. IN EITHER CASE...THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. N SWELLS OF 6-8 FT NOTED HERE WILL SUBSIDE TO 4-5 FT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W 15 KT IS PRESENTLY ENTERING THE FAR SE WATERS S OF 14N ALONG 55W/56W AS IT MOVES W AT 13 KT. THIS WAVE IS USHERING IN AN INCREASE OF TRADE WINDS TO 15-20 KT. THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE FAR SRN WATERS THROUGH THU NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD SEAS TO 8 FT S OF ABOUT 15N...THEN SUBSIDE TO 6 FT FRI...AND TO 4-5 FT SAT THROUGH MON. SW N ATLC... A RIDGE FROM BERMUDA TO NE FLORIDA WILL SHIFT S TO NEAR 28N THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN BECOME ORIENTED FROM 31N69W TO S FL SAT AND SUN...AND TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MON. ELY 15-20 KT WINDS WILL CONTINUE S OF 24N THROUGH FRI NIGHT THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT. LATEST NHC HURRICANE BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY KEEPS BERTHA TO THE E OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE THROUGH MON. AT 0300 UTC BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 58.9W...OR ABOUT 590 NM SE OF BERMUDA. ITS CIRCULATION WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT TO THE FAR ERN WATERS OF THIS ZONE PRIMARILY N OF 25N AND E OF 70W THU THROUGH MOST OF MON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BACK AROUND IN DIRECTION FROM NE-E ON FRI AND NW-N AND INCREASING TO 15-20 KT ON SAT...AND MAYBE EVEN TO 20-25 KT ON SUN...AND TO W-NW 20-25 KT MON OVER THE FAR NE WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT LATE MON. THESE WIND SPEEDS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON ANY POSSIBLE SLIGHT DEVIATIONS TO THE FORECAST TRACK OF BERTHA. EXPECT LONG-PERIOD NE TO E SWELLS OF UP 9 FT TO TRANSVERSE INTO THE NE PORTION OF THE ZONE LATE SAT INTO EARLY MON WITH THE INCREASE OF WINDS RESULTING FROM THE CIRCULATION AROUND BERTHA. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ELY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND LIGHT SLY ELSEWHERE OVER FAR SE PART ON FRI. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SW N OF THE RIDGE THROUGH SAT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 KT FAR NW WATERS ON SUN...AND TO 15-20 KT ON MON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FAR NW WATERS. OUTSIDE ANY SWELL THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA...SEAS WILL RANGE ABOUT 3-5 FT...EXCEPT 2-3 FT W OF BAHAMAS AND OVER THE NW PART N OF THE RIDGE THU THROUGH SAT...THEN TO 3-5 FT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS SUN...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT MON. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS ON MON. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.