000 AGXX40 KNHC 090631 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AN ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS WEST ALONG 30N INTO NE TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE NRN FRINGE A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 92W S OF 23N MOVES W ABOUT 20 KT. NCEP GLOBAL MODELS AND EVEN THE NAM REGIONAL SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT S TO NEAR 28N FRI AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH SUN MAINTAINING ITS HOLD ON THE WIND REGIME OVER THE GULF. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH THIS EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING INLAND THE MEXICAN COAST. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM NEAR 2350 UTC LAST NIGHT COVERED THE MIDDLE AND ERN GULF...AND REVEALING LIGHT SE WINDS...EXCEPT FOR A NARROW SWATH OF E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. IN ADDITION...BUOYS FROM ALONG THE KEYS ARE REPORTING E-SE 20 KT WINDS. A SHIP WITH CALL LETTER ID "C6FM6" OVER THE NRN YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W JUST RECENTLY REPORTED A NE WIND OF 20 KT WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT. A STEADY SWATH OF E-SE 20 KT WINDS CONTINUES OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF AS INDICATED BY RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY 42055 LOCATED AT 22N94W. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT ON FRI AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES OVER MEXICO WEAKENS SOME. SEA HEIGHT ACROSS THE AREA ARE RANGING FROM 1-3 FT ...EXCEPT 4-6 FT IN THE WRN GULF S OF 25N AND 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE IN THE WRN GULF AND FAR SE WATERS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SEAS IN THE SW GULF ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT FRI-SUN...AND TO 1-3 FT IN THE E GULF. EXPECT HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND WITH OTHER SIMILAR ACTIVITY PERSISTING NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE E EDGE OF A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 2350 UTC LAST NIGHT REVEALED NE 20 KT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SEA S OF ERN JAMAICA TO NEAR 11N. ALTHOUGH THIS WAS IN THE EDGE OF THE SWATH ...BUOY 42058 LOCATED AT EAR 15N75W IS CURRENTLY REPORTING NE 20 KT WINDS...AND RECENTLY REPORTED 25 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION AT THAT BUOY MATCHES THAT OF THE QUIKSCAT PRETTY WELL...SO WILL ACCEPT THE QUIKSCAT WINDS AS REALISTIC DATA FOR WINDS IN THAT PART OF THE SEA. BASED ON THIS CURRENT FORECAST FOR WINDS IN THE SW PORTION LOOKS GOOD...AND WILL KEEP MENTION OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH FRI THEN INCREASE THEM UP TO 30 KT FOR THAT PORTION OF THE SEA FOR SAT AND LOWER BACK DOWN TO 20-25 KT ON SUN PER GFS MODEL WIND GUIDANCE. SIMILAR WINDS OF 20-25 KT EXTEND E INTO THE ERN PORTION OF THE SEAS TO 70W AND S OF 17N. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ERN PART OF THE SEA THROUGH SUN. WILL FOLLOW GFS GUIDANCE FOR SUN AND WEAKEN THE WINDS IN THE SW PORTION BACK DOWN TO 20-25 KT. MAXIMUM SEAS WILL BE IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE OVER THE SW AND ERN PORTION S OF 17N THROUGH SUN...BUT MAY BUILD UP TO 13 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FRI INTO SAT PER THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE GENERALLY N-E 15 KT...EXCEPT FOR THE NW PORTION OF THE SEA WHERE WINDS ARE E-SE 10-15 KT. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR 4-7 FT IN NE SWELLS OVER MUCH OF THE E CARIBBEAN AND UP 8 FT THROUGH NE ATLC PASSAGES ALL ATTRIBUTED TO HURRICANE BERTHA TO THE NE OF CARIBBEAN...ABOUT 580 MILES...OR 935 KM NE OF THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS AT 09/0300 UTC. THE NE SWELLS OF UP TO 8 FT ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLAND PASSAGES THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 6 FT THROUGH SUN. TROPICAL ATLC... QUIKSCAT DATA FROM JUST PAST 2200 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF 21N BETWEEN 57W-61W AND SE-S WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF 21N ALONG 55W DUE TO HURRICANE BERTHA CENTERED NEAR 23.1N 55.8W AT 09/0300 UTC. LATEST NHC FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO TRACK BERTHA NW FURTHER AWAY FROM THESE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN STORY HERE WILL BE THE LONG PERIOD N-NE SWELLS OF 8-12 FT IMPACTING THE NRN SECTION OF THESE WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SUBSIDE TO 7-8 FT TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W 15 KT IS APPROACHING 50W. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE SE PORTION OF THESE WATERS TONIGHT AND USHER IN AN INCREASE OF THE TRADE WINDS TO 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR SRN WATERS LASTING THROUGH EARLY THU EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8 FT S OF ABOUT 15N...THEN LESSEN TO 6 FT THU NIGHT INTO FRI...AND TO 4-5 FT SAT AND SUN. SW N ATLC... A RIDGE FROM BERMUDA TO NE FLORIDA WILL SHIFT S TO NEAR 28N LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...THEN BECOME ORIENTED FROM 31N69W TO S FL SAT AND SUN. ELY 15-20 KT WINDS WILL CONTINUE S OF 24N THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT. LATEST NHC HURRICANE BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY KEEPS BERTHA TO THE E OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE THROUGH SUN. SINCE BERTHA HAS SLOWED DOWN ITS FORWARD MOTION...ITS CIRCULATION WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT TO THE FAR ERN WATERS OF THIS ZONE PRIMARILY N OF 25N AND E OF 70W THU THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BACK AROUND IN DIRECTION FROM NE-E ON FRI AND NW-N AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT ON SAT...THEN DIMINISHING TO 10 KT ON SUN. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW WHETHER THESE WINDS MAY BE STRONGER OR EVEN LESS BASED ON WHETHER THE FORECAST TRACK FOR BERTHA FLUCTUATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT LONG-PERIOD NE TO E SWELLS OF UP 8 FT AND MAYBE EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO TRANSVERSE INTO THE ERN PORTION OF THE ZONE S OF THE 20-25 KT WINDS. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ELY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND LIGHT SLY ELSEWHERE OVER FAR SE PART ON FRI. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SW N OF THE RIDGE THROUGH SAT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 KT FAR NW WATERS ON SUN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SE UNITED STATES. OUTSIDE ANY SWELL THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA...SEAS WILL RANGE ABOUT 3-5 FT...EXCEPT 2-3 FT W OF BAHAMAS AND OVER THE NW PART N OF THE RIDGE THU THROUGH SAT...THEN TO 3-5 FT OVER THE FAR NW WATERS SUN. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS ON SUN. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.