000 AGXX40 KNHC 070718 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 310 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AN ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS WEST ALONG THE FAR NRN GULF COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE INFLUENCING THE WIND REGIME OVER THE GULF DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ALL MODELS PRETTY MUCH AGREE THAT IT WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH FRI. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0040 UTC LAST NIGHT REVEALED A SWATH OF SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE SW GULF FROM 21N-25N. BUOY 42055 IN THE SW GULF LOCATED AT 22N94W HAS BEEN REPORTING SE WINDS OF 25 KT DURING THE PAST 3-4 HOURS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT. THE 00 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM LAST NIGHT SHOWED A TROPICAL ALONG 89W MOVING AT A QUICK PACE OF 15-20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS QUICK WESTWARD TRACK SHOULD MOVE THE NRN EXTENSION OF THE WAVE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT...AND THROUGH YUCATAN CHANNEL ON TUE...AND ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON WED TO INLAND THE MEXICAN COAST LATE WED INTO THU. STILL APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WITH WINDS INCREASING TO E-SE MAINLY 15-20 KT OVER THE THE SRN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE GULF AND WATERS NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON TUE AND IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED AND THU. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY BE HIGHER NEAR ANY TSTM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN WATERS AS WAVE PASSES THROUGH. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED W OF THE AREA LAST NIGHT...AND IS NOW ALONG 89W. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 75W AT 0300 UTC LAST NIGHT MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE WILL REACH TO NEAR 79W BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND ACROSS THE FAR WRN PORTION OF THE SEA AND GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BEFORE EXITING THE SEA. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 2300 UTC LAST NIGHT REVEALED MOSTLY NE 15-20 KT WINDS AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH STRONG NE WINDS...IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE...E OF THE WAVE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. A PARTIAL 0140 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED SIMILAR WINDS IN THE SRN CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. BASED ON THIS WILL CHANGE CURRENT FORECAST VERY LITTLE WITH RESPECT TO WINDS E AND W OF THE WAVE. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE GENERALLY N-E 15 KT...EXCEPT FOR THE NW PORTION OF THE SEA WHERE WINDS ARE SELY. SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE...EXCEPT FOR 4-6 FT IN NE SWELLS E OF ABOUT 75W. THE MAIN SHORT TERM PROBLEM WITH SEAS IN THE ERN WILL BE ATTRIBUTED TO TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IN THE ATLC. WITH BERTHA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS TO THE NE OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA (ZONE AMZ086) WED THROUGH FRI...EXPECT NE SWELLS GENERATED FROM IT TO PEAK UP TO 8 FT AS THEY SPREAD SW THROUGH PASSAGES BETWEEN NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS TUE THROUGH WED AS BERTHA THEN PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR MOTION OF BERTHA AS ANY SLOWING DOWN OF THE CYCLONE WILL ALLOW FOR SWELLS TO PERSIST LONGER THROUGH NE CARIBBEAN WATERS. MODELS TEND TO KEEP WINDS UP OVER THE THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI...WITH LATEST GFS RUN SHOWING SEVERAL 30 KT WIND BARBS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ON FRI...WITH WAVEWATCH SEAS UP TO 12 OR 13 FT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO SW CARIBBEAN AND WRN PORTION OF THE ERN CARIBBEAN FOR FRI. TROPICAL ATLC... BOTH QUIKSCAT DATA FROM LAST NIGHT ALONG WITH SHIPS " BATFR14" AND "BATFR15" INDICATE THAT NE 20 KT WINDS ARE IMPACTING THE FAR NE PORTION OF THIS ZONE AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA. LATEST NHC FORECAST FOR BERTHA HAS TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING INTO THE NE PART LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING THROUGH TUE EVENING AS BERTHA MOVES ON A NW TRACK ACROSS THE NE PORTION. MONITOR TC ADVISORIES FOR CHANGES IN TRACK AND INTENSITY. LONG PERIOD N-NE SWELLS OF 8-12 FT ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NRN SECTION OF THESE WATERS THROUGH TUE NIGHT. SHIP "BATFR15" MENTIONED ABOVE REPORTED SEAS OF 10-12 FT IN E SWELL SHORTLY AFTER 0600 UTC. ALSO LIKE STATED UNDER CARIBBEAN SEA...ANY SLOWING DOWN OF BERTHA WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD EVEN HIGHER TO ITS N AND W ALLOWING FOR EVEN LONGER PERIOD SWELLS TO AFFECT THE NRN WATERS OVER A LONGER DURATION. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR E ATLC EXPECTED TO APPROACH 55W THU NIGHT OR FRI MORNING FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN TRADES TO 20-25 KT S OF 15N. SW N ATLC... A RIDGE FROM BERMUDA TO NE FLORIDA WILL SHIFT N TO ALONG 30N TODAY THROUGH TUE...THEN SHIFT BACK S TO NEAR 29N WED THROUGH FRI. FRESH EASTERLY 15-20 TRADES WILL CONTINUE S OF 25N E OF 78W TILL EARLY WED THEN DIMINISH SOME AS GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH FORECAST HURRICANE BERTHA NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FAR E CENTRAL WATERS LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. WINDS WILL BACK FROM E TO NE OVER THE E PORTION LATE WED INTO THU. AHEAD OF BERTHA ...EXPECT LONG-PERIOD NE TO E SWELLS OF 8 FT AND HIGHER TO SPREAD W TO NEAR 69W BY FRI WAVE MODEL GUIDANCES. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ELY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND LIGHT SLY ELSEWHERE OVER FAR SE PART ON FRI. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SW N OF THE RIDGE THROUGH FRI. SEAS WILL RANGE ABOUT 3-5 FT W OF 69W AND THE FAR SE PORTION LATE THU AND FRI...AND 6-8 FT N OF 24N BETWEEN 69-73W. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY ATLANTIC... HURRICANE WARNING N OF 19N E OF 61W...AMZ087 CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.