000 AGXX40 KNHC 051543 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1200 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AN E TO W RIDGE FROM THE ATLC EXTENDS W ALONG 28N AND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT N AND LIE E-W ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAINS BETWEEN 30-31N THROUGH THE PERIOD. SE 15-20 KT WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE SW PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO E TEXAS. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 15 KT PAST FEW DAYS. THAT MOTION SHOULD MOVE THE N EXTENSION OF WAVE THROUGH YUCATAN CHANEL SUN MORNING...AND THROUGH THE BAY OF BAY OF CAMPECHE MON-TUE. MAY SEE A SLIGHT NE TO SE SHIFT AT 15-20 KT ALONG WAVE. PRECIP ONLY ENHANCED S OF 20N ALONG THE WAVE AT THE MOMENT. CARIBBEAN... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W IS MOVING W AT 15 KT AND EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN SUN AND THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS SUN NIGHT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W ATTM... WITH A WELL DEFINED BAND OF OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND BRIEF SHOWERS ALONG ITS AXIS AND A FEW TS ALONG THE WAVE AT 18N. THE WAVE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE W AT 18 KT TO ALONG 73W SUN...81W MON...AND THROUGH GULF OF HONDURAS TUE. THE GRADIENT W OF WAVE IS SUPPORTING 15-20 KT...BUT E OF WAVE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT 25-30 KT NEAR COLOMBIA. THE GRADIENT RELAXES IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA PASSES NE OF THE NE ISLANDS. SOME NE SWELL FROM TS BERTHA WILL MAKE IT INTO EXPOSED NE ATLC PASSAGES TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED THEN SUBSIDE AGAIN WED NIGHT AS CYCLONE MOVES OUT TO NW. TROPICAL ATLC...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 63W WILL MOVE W OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON. E TRADES AT 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT AREA TONIGHT THEN THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SUN INCREASING NE WINDS TO 15-20 KT OVER E-CENTRAL AND NE WATERS IN RESPONSE TO CYCLONE BERTHA APPROACHING. TS AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO NE WATERS MON NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE WED AS BERTHA MOVES ON A NW TRACK ACROSS THE N PORTION. THIS IS 72-96 HOURS OUT...AND THE TRACK FORECAST IS LIKELY TO CHANGE A LITTLE IN FUTURE PACKAGES. HEAVIEST WINDS AND SEAS OVER ITS N SEMICIRCLE SO ONLY THE EXTREME NE FORECAST WATERS WILL SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...N-NE SWELLS 8 FT AND HIGHER EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER AREA N OF 15N TUE NIGHT. BERTHA MOVING W AT 18 KT SO WILL BACK OFF ON MAX SEAS HEIGHTS WITH MAX NEAR 24 FT OVER NE QUADRANT...AND THESE VALUES ALSO LIKELY TO CHANGE FUTURE FORECASTS. SW ATLC...A RIDGE FROM BERMUDA TO NE FLORIDA WILL CHANGE LITTLE THOUGH PERIOD. FRESH EASTERLY 15-20 TRADES WILL CONTINUE S OF 24N E OF 78W INTO NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL BACK FROM DUE E TO NE OVER THE E PORTION LATE TUE INTO WED AS BERTHA APPROACHES THE EXTREME E PORTION AND ENTERS ARE A A MINIMAL HURRICANE WED NIGHT. ATLANTIC... .NONE. AMZ087...HRCN CONDS EXPCTD N OF 19N E OF 64W MON NIGHT-EARLY WED. AMZ080...HRCN CONDS EXPCTD 22N-28N E OF 70W WED NIGHT. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. .FORECASTER NELSON. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.