000
AGXX40 KNHC 031841
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT THU JULY 3 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

AN UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS IN THE CENTRAL N ATLC WILL SPLIT THE SFC 
RIDGE IN HALF...WITH THE WESTERN-MOST HIGH PRESSURE CENTER 
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY W BUT KEEPING THE RIDGE AXIS STATIONARY OVER 
THE N GULF COASTAL PLAINS THROUGH SAT.  WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 
LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM E TO SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO 
THROUGH SAT AS A RESULT.  ON SUN AND MON...THE SFC RIDGE OVER 
THE W GULF IS EXPECTED TO ERODE SOMEWHAT AS A DEEP INVERTED 
TROUGH BUILDS THROUGH THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL 
LOW PINCHING OFF OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE MID 
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING E INTO THE PLAINS STATES.  LOOK FOR WINDS 
TO SHIFT MORE FROM THE S AND STRENGTHEN AT THE SFC OVER THE W 
GULF SUN AND MON.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W GULF COULD 
SUPPORT ENHANCED CONVECTION SUN AND MON.

IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH AMERICAN 
CONTINENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MODERATE E TRADE WINDS 
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES WILL 
DISTURB THIS PATTERN...WITH THE WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 78W MOVING 
W THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY SUN WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER A 
REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THAT MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION 
WITH THE WAVE.  ELSEWHERE...THE WAVE ALONG 65W WILL PUSH W OF 
JAMAICA ON SUN...THE WAVE ALONG 52W WILL MAKE ITS WAY E OF THE 
ISLANDS ON SAT...AND THE WAVE NEAR 44 W WILL MOVE THROUGH THE 
ISLANDS ON SUN.

IN THE ATLC...THE PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT 
THE SURFACE THROUGH SAT.  ON SUN...WINDS IN THE FAR E PORTION OF 
THE FORECAST REGION SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO 
T.S. BERTHA.  EXPECT SEAS TO RISE ABOVE 8 FT ALONG 55 W BY 
MON...WITH MAX SEAS AROUND 12 FT EXPECTED ON TUE W OF 55W TO 60W 
N OF 20N.


ATLANTIC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

.FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.