000 AGXX40 KNHC 291755 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. UPPER LEVEL... TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...TUTT...EXTENDS FROM CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 25N66W THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NW COAST OF COLOMBIA BRINGING VERY DRY AIR MASS WITHIN 5 DEG EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. RIDGE CENTERED AT 14N49W IN TRPCL ATLC EXTRACTS PLENTY OF TRPCL MOISTURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA AND ADVECTS IT NE ACROSS ERN HALF OF CARIBBEAN SEA. TO THE WEST...ANTICYCLONE AT 18N85W IN WRN CARIBBEAN HAS BROAD RIDGE EXTEND S INTO E PAC PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW TO DEEP ITCZ CONVECTION AND ADVECTING MOISTURE DEBRIS THROUGH BAY OF CAMPECHE ACROSS GLFMEX INTO SERN CONUS WHERE WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH CAN MAKE GOOD USE OF IT. GULF OF MEXICO... SFC RIDGE REMAINS WELL ANCHORED ALONG 29N WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS NRN GLFMEX AND STEADY STREAM OF MODERATE E-SE FLOW ACROSS REMAINDER OF GULF. WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH SCRAPES NRN WATERS WITH MINOR CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH INCREASING...BUT LACK OF ENERGY KEEP NE WINDS VERY LIGHT. REMNANT CONVECTION OF TRPCL WAVE THAT MOVED W LAST NIGHT STILL LINGER IN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AS MENTIONED IN ABOVE PARAGRAPH. SFC RIDGE REBUILDS AFTER THU WITH RETURN OF E-SE FLOW AND SLIGHT SEAS. SW N ATLC... SFC RIDGE ALONG 29N DOMINATES REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER MOST OF AREA EXCEPT ELY WINDS S OF 25N. CREST OF CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN CAUSING CONVECTION JUST N OF HISPANIOLA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CREEP NW THROUGH GREATER ANTILLES AND REACH BAHAMA ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT. WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH JUST SCRAPES ACROSS 31N INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS IN NW CORNER OF BASIN AND BRINGS SOME CONVECTION INTO THE PICTURE WHICH SHOULD STAY N OF 27N. RIDGE EXPECTED TO REBUILD WED ONCE TROUGH HEADS N. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 72W ENHANCES ONGOING TRADES ACROSS SRN HALF OF BASIN REACHING 30 KT ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA. SECOND WAVE NOW ALONG 58W IN TRPCL ATLC UNDER DRY AIR MASS SHOULD START KICKING SOME CONVECTION WITHIN NEXT 24-36 HR AS IT ENTERS FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT AND A MOIST AIR MASS. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.