000 AGXX40 KNHC 280625 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT SAT JUN 28 2008 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE GULF OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH SFC RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE NRN GULF ALONG 29N/30N WITH LIGHT E TO SE WINDS OVER MOST AREAS. ONLY EXCEPTION ARE 20 KT WINDS REPORTED BY SEVERAL PLATFORMS AND IN THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AND BAY OF CAMPECHE W OF 95W. ONLY CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SCENARIO IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE WINDS W OF 95W DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE N END OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MOVES W OF THE AREA TONIGHT/SUN AND THE SFC RIDGE SAGS SLIGHTLY SWD TO ALONG 27N/28N BY SUN NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG THE GULF COAST. EXTENDED...FRONTAL TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE FAR N GULF COAST MON AND TUE WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE AREA. BY WED RIDGE REBUILDS WWD WITH LIGHT E TO SE FLOW RESUMING ALL AREAS. SW N ATLC... SFC RIDGE ALONG 29N/30N DOMINATES REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER MOST OF AREA EXCEPT ELY WINDS OF 20 KT NOTED N OF GREATER ANTILLES AND BAHAMA BANK. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 66W/67W MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH ELY TRADES PICKING UP TO 20-25 KT OVER THE BAHAMAS ON SUN. APPROACH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM ALONG THE E COAST RESULTS IN AN INCREASE IN SW WINDS TO 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. EXTENDED...TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO W CARIBBEAN MON WITH TRADES DECREASING SLIGHTLY INTO WED. FRONTAL TROUGH WEAKENS OVER THE SE AND ALLOWS BELT OF SW 20 KT WINDS TO MOVE N OF THE AREA. ON WED...GFS AND CMC ARE OUTLIERS IN DEVELOPING A SFC LOW ALONG THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL TROUGH OFF THE FL E COAST AND MOVING IT NWD OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. GFS 7H MOISTURE AND OMEGA FIELDS SUGGEST POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS ENSEMBLES...UKMET AND ECMWF ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THESE MODELS AND NOT MENTION LOW PRES AT THIS TIME. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... MOST RECENT HI RES ASCAT PASS INDICATED ELY TRADES OF 20-25 KT ACROSS MOST AREAS E OF 82W. TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 66W/67W WILL MOVE INTO THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE SAT/SUN AND ENHANCE THE EXISTING TRADES WITH 30+ KT WINDS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. CURRENT SEAS OF 8-11 FT BUILD TO 9-14 FT BY SUN THEN DECREASE SUN NIGHT. EXTENDED...AREAL COVERAGE OF FRESH TO STRONG ELY TRADES (20-25 KT) DECREASES MON THROUGH WED AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WWD IN THE CARIBBEAN. WINDS DROP OFF TO 15-20 KT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. WARNINGS... ATLANTIC... NONE. CARIBBEAN... NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .FORECASTER COBB. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.